The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Dolphins v Sydney Roosters

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 09:52 UTC

Final: Dolphins 20–36 Sydney Roosters

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 55.09%1.82fair odd
EV +0.819%
Edge +0.448%
Kelly +0.987%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%54.51%55.09%56.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.721.731.8360.24%58.19%57.80%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 44.91%2.23fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.964%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.46%45.49%44.91%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.122.1850.00%46.98%47.17%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dolphins (Local): 55.09%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 44.91%. For Dolphins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.82. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.819%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV +0.819%E +0.448%K +0.987%G +0.008%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -10.18%E -5.09%K -10.18%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-25 09:49
Bet Right🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV -2.49%E -1.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -6.59%E -3.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-25 09:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.59%E -2.05%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-25 08:50
TAB🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.14%E -2.38%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 05:53
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.14%E -2.38%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 09:50
PlayUp🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.14%E -2.38%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 09:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.14%E -2.38%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 09:10
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -4.69%E -2.71%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -2.55%E -1.18%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-25 09:40
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.69%E -2.71%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 09:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.69%E -2.71%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.69%E -2.71%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 09:25
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -5.24%E -3.05%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -3.90%E -1.82%K -3.42%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-25 08:45
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -6.34%E -3.73%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -4.80%E -2.26%K -4.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.10%E -0.964%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.10%E -0.964%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 09:50
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.10%E -0.964%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.10%E -0.964%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 09:50
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -7.44%E -4.43%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -2.10%E -0.964%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 09:50
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -8.00%E -4.79%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV -2.55%E -1.18%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -8.55%E -5.15%K -12.95%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -3.00%E -1.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-25 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%0.8%2026-09-25 09:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%7.1%2026-09-25 09:50
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.48%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%7.1%2026-09-25 09:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.55%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.89%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%7.9%2026-09-25 08:30
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.46%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%8.1%2026-09-25 07:25
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.40%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.2%2026-09-25 09:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.40%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.26%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.2%2026-09-25 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.39%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.00%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%10.8%2026-09-25 09:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.99%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.90%13.4%2026-09-25 08:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.65%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.40%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.95%15.1%2026-09-25 09:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.95%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.95%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.10%15.3%2026-09-25 09:45