The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Dolphins v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 05:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 56.72%1.76fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.73%56.63%58.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.641.681.671.7360.98%59.66%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit)

Prediction 43.28%2.31fair odd
EV +0.848%
Edge +0.364%
Kelly +0.638%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.31%43.27%43.37%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.212.222.3347.62%45.29%45.05%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dolphins (Local): 56.72%; South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit): 43.28%. For South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.848%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -6.98%E -4.26%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV +0.848%E +0.364%K +0.638%G +0.005%3.9%2026-03-08 04:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 04:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 04:15
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 04:14
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 04:14
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 04:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 04:15
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.42%E -3.89%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.61%E -1.16%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 04:14
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -6.98%E -4.26%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.48%E -1.56%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 04:14
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%EV -6.98%E -4.26%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%EV -3.48%E -1.56%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 04:14
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.58%E -2.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -3.91%E -1.76%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 02:51
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -3.58%E -2.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.78%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 04:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.71%E -2.81%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.78%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 04:59
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.71%E -2.81%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.78%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 04:59
TAB🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.28%E -3.16%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.78%E -2.17%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 05:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -2.45%E -1.42%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -5.64%E -2.59%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-08 02:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.58%E -2.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 00:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.58%E -2.11%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.94%E -3.23%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 03:14
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -2.45%E -1.42%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -8.24%E -3.89%K -7.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 04:49
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -1.88%E -1.09%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -8.67%E -4.11%K -7.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 04:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.88%E -1.09%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.11%E -4.34%K -8.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 04:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%0.9%2026-03-08 05:00
Matchbook◎1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%10.4%2026-03-07 19:54

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%6.2%2026-03-08 04:49
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%6.2%2026-03-08 04:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.47%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.68%8.6%2026-03-08 04:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%9.4%2026-03-01 17:19
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%9.4%2026-03-01 17:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.00%11.1%2026-03-04 17:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.90%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.82%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.28%11.2%2026-03-08 04:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.08%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.46%12.1%2026-03-08 04:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.09%2.12I 47.17%NM 40.82%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.09%15.6%2026-03-08 04:48