The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Dolphins v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 05:01 UTC

Final: Dolphins 0–66 Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 52.28%1.91fair odd
EV -5.90%
Edge -3.28%
Kelly -7.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.04%52.74%52.56%56.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.721.761.8062.50%58.10%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 43.40%2.30fair odd
EV -0.185%
Edge -0.080%
Kelly -0.142%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.18%42.86%42.89%45.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.132.152.3050.51%46.95%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.32%23.12fair odd
EV +38.39%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.475%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%4.40%4.55%6.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0021.0020.0032.006.67%4.76%5.00%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dolphins (Local): 52.28%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 43.40%; Draw: 4.32%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.12. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +38.39%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.00%EV -7.47%E -4.22%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.12%EV -11.47%E -5.62%K -11.03%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +38.39%E +1.20%K +1.24%G +0.475%8.6%2026-07-11 05:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.27%EV -7.99%E -4.54%K -10.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.12%EV -13.20%E -6.60%K -13.20%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.61%EV +8.11%E +0.325%K +0.338%G +0.027%10.8%2026-07-11 05:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.04%EV -7.99%E -4.54%K -10.52%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.37%EV -14.07%E -7.11%K -14.36%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV +8.11%E +0.325%K +0.338%G +0.027%11.3%2026-07-11 05:00
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.33%EV -11.13%E -6.55%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.05%EV -2.35%E -1.05%K -1.88%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.62%EV -13.51%E -0.675%K -0.711%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 01:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.32%EV -16.36%E -10.22%K -27.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -0.185%E -0.080%K -0.142%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -13.51%E -0.675%K -0.711%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-11 01:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.93%EV -13.74%E -8.33%K -21.14%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.39%EV -6.69%E -3.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.68%EV -17.83%E -0.939%K -0.991%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-11 02:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.73%EV -13.74%E -8.33%K -21.14%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.44%EV -11.03%E -5.38%K -10.51%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.83%EV -22.16%E -1.23%K -1.30%G +0.000%14.9%2026-07-11 05:00
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -5.90%E -3.28%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.21%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -35.13%E -2.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-11 04:39
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.59%EV -5.90%E -3.28%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.21%EV -4.52%E -2.06%K -3.77%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV -35.13%E -2.34%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-11 04:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%0.6%2026-07-11 05:00
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%3.9%2026-07-11 04:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%4.0%2026-07-11 04:09
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%4.3%2026-07-11 04:54
Dabble (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%5.0%2026-07-11 03:59
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-07-11 05:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-07-11 04:59
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-07-11 04:34
PlayUp🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-07-11 05:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-07-11 04:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-07-11 04:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-07-11 04:39
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-07-11 04:39
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-07-11 04:59
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%5.6%2026-07-11 04:39
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-07-11 04:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-07-11 05:00
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%6.7%2026-07-11 04:59
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-07-11 05:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%2.07I 48.31%NM 44.35%8.9%2026-07-11 04:59

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.