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Dolphins v Brisbane Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 07:34 UTC

Final: Dolphins 40–32 Brisbane Broncos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 67.76%1.48fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -3.67%
Kelly -12.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%67.41%67.72%70.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.291.291.40100.00%77.82%77.22%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 28.50%3.51fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.486%
Kelly -0.685%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%28.72%28.64%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.002.933.173.45100.00%34.12%31.50%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.74%26.76fair odd
EV +19.59%
Edge +0.612%
Kelly +0.632%
Growth +0.124%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.82%3.87%3.63%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.0022.0024.0032.00100.00%4.55%4.17%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dolphins (Local): 67.76%; Brisbane Broncos (Visit): 28.50%; Draw: 3.74%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.59%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.60%EV -13.26%E -10.36%K -47.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -3.10%E -0.913%K -1.29%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV +19.59%E +0.612%K +0.632%G +0.124%10.7%2026-08-08 07:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.22%EV -7.16%E -5.23%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -11.65%E -3.76%K -5.55%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +12.12%E +0.404%K +0.418%G +0.051%8.6%2026-08-08 05:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.15%EV -12.59%E -9.76%K -43.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -1.68%E -0.486%K -0.685%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV -6.57%E -0.263%K -0.274%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-08 07:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.27%EV -5.13%E -3.67%K -12.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.13%EV -20.20%E -7.22%K -11.22%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -6.57%E -0.263%K -0.274%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-02 10:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -11.91%E -9.16%K -39.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -7.38%E -2.27%K -3.28%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.88%EV -14.04%E -0.611%K -0.638%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-08 07:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 67.50%EV -12.59%E -9.76%K -43.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.55%EV -13.08%E -4.29%K -6.38%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.96%EV -17.78%E -0.808%K -0.847%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-08 07:15
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.93%EV -8.52%E -6.31%K -24.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -3.10%E -0.913%K -1.29%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -32.73%E -1.82%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 04:39
NordicBet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -32.24%E -32.24%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -71.50%E -71.50%K +0.000%G +0.000%1.00I 100.00%NM 33.33%EV -96.26%E -96.26%K +0.000%G +0.000%200.0%2026-08-08 07:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-08 07:30
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.43%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.57%4.4%2026-08-08 06:55
Dabble (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%4.7%2026-08-07 22:29
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%4.8%2026-08-08 07:24
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%4.8%2026-08-08 07:10
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.93%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.07%5.2%2026-08-08 07:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%5.3%2026-08-08 07:20
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-08-08 07:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-08 07:25
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-08 07:00
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-08 07:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-08 07:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-08 07:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-08-08 07:00
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-08-08 06:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-08-08 06:55
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-08-08 07:00
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%5.8%2026-08-08 07:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%6.4%2026-08-07 09:25
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%6.4%2026-08-08 07:00

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