The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Sydney Roosters

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 07:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 44.77%2.23fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.74%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%44.59%44.77%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.032.002.1552.08%49.26%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 50.74%1.97fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -5.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.01%50.71%50.74%51.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.801.8858.82%55.52%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.49%22.27fair odd
EV +16.74%
Edge +0.644%
Kelly +0.670%
Growth +0.112%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.55%4.70%4.49%6.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0020.4420.0026.006.67%4.89%5.00%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local): 44.77%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 50.74%; Draw: 4.49%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.27. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.74%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.23%E -4.01%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.49%EV -9.17%E -5.12%K -11.61%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.55%EV +16.74%E +0.644%K +0.670%G +0.112%8.5%2026-04-11 07:09
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.87%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.14%E -3.90%K -8.61%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV +3.27%E +0.142%K +0.149%G +0.005%9.0%2026-04-11 06:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.87%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.14%EV -7.14%E -3.90%K -8.61%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV +3.27%E +0.142%K +0.149%G +0.005%9.0%2026-04-11 06:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.11%EV -14.05%E -7.32%K -15.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.95%EV -13.74%E -8.08%K -19.63%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.94%EV -1.22%E -0.055%K -0.058%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-11 07:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.23%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -8.66%E -4.81%K -10.83%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.52%EV -10.20%E -0.510%K -0.537%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-07 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.72%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.81%EV -10.69%E -6.08%K -14.07%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.47%EV -10.20%E -0.510%K -0.537%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 04:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.46%EV -10.46%E -5.23%K -10.46%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.10%EV -11.71%E -6.73%K -15.82%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.45%EV -10.20%E -0.510%K -0.537%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-11 04:30
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.73%EV -3.75%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -4.61%E -2.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -32.65%E -2.18%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 07:15
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.73%EV -3.75%E -1.74%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -4.61%E -2.45%K -5.23%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -32.65%E -2.18%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 07:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%0.5%2026-04-11 07:20
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%3.9%2026-04-11 07:09
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%4.3%2026-04-11 07:20
SportsBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.23%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%4.5%2026-04-11 07:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-04-11 07:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%4.9%2026-04-07 06:15
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%4.9%2026-04-07 06:14
Dabble (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%5.0%2026-04-11 07:20
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%5.1%2026-04-11 07:00
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-04-11 07:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%5.3%2026-04-11 07:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-04-11 07:15
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-04-11 07:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-04-11 07:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-04-11 07:14
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-04-11 07:14
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-04-11 07:14
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%5.4%2026-04-11 07:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-04-05 07:44
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%5.7%2026-04-11 07:15
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%5.7%2026-04-11 07:15