The School of Odds
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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 06:05 UTC

Final: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 34–12 St George Illawarra Dragons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 70.15%1.43fair odd
EV -5.30%
Edge -3.92%
Kelly -15.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.32%70.26%70.16%72.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.291.301.3580.65%77.35%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 26.31%3.80fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.354%
Kelly -0.483%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.16%26.15%26.19%27.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.343.533.603.7529.94%28.35%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.54%28.28fair odd
EV +20.22%
Edge +0.595%
Kelly +0.613%
Growth +0.124%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.71%3.59%3.65%4.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0025.2925.0034.005.00%3.95%4.00%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local): 70.15%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 26.31%; Draw: 3.54%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.22%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.73%EV -7.40%E -5.61%K -23.13%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.56%EV -12.12%E -3.63%K -5.18%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV +20.22%E +0.595%K +0.613%G +0.124%8.6%2026-06-07 05:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.48%EV -12.31%E -9.85%K -49.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -1.33%E -0.354%K -0.483%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.36%EV -4.53%E -0.168%K -0.174%G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-07 03:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.17%EV -13.01%E -10.49%K -54.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -3.96%E -1.08%K -1.49%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.31%EV -4.53%E -0.168%K -0.174%G +0.000%11.7%2026-06-07 03:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.72%EV -8.80%E -6.77%K -29.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -11.61%E -0.464%K -0.484%G +0.000%10.3%2026-06-06 04:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.33%EV -13.01%E -10.49%K -54.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.03%EV -11.85%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.63%EV -15.14%E -0.631%K -0.658%G +0.000%14.7%2026-06-07 04:39
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.30%E -3.92%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -29.28%E -1.46%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-07 05:39
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.30%E -3.92%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.27%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -29.28%E -1.46%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-07 05:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.71%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.29%1.4%2026-06-07 06:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.95%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.05%3.8%2026-06-06 22:20
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.84%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.16%4.6%2026-06-07 05:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%4.7%2026-06-06 07:09
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%5.0%2026-06-07 04:40
Bet Right🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-06-03 01:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-06-06 11:49
LeoVegas🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-06-06 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-06-06 11:50
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-06-06 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-06-06 11:49
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-06-06 11:49
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-06-07 05:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-07 03:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-02 07:19
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-02 07:19
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-07 02:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-07 05:09
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-04 01:49
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-04 01:49
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%6.5%2026-06-06 00:40