The School of Odds

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs

2026-08-02 04:00 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 63.53%1.57fair odd
EV -5.97%
Edge -4.04%
Kelly -12.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.12%63.53%63.53%64.43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.421.4874%71%70%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit)

Prediction 32.49%3.08fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.65%32.49%32.49%32.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.652.792.832.9038%36%35%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.98%25.13fair odd
EV +11.43%
Edge +0.408%
Kelly +0.423%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.29%3.98%3.98%4.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
20.0021.8320.0028.005%5%5%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 63.94%EV -8.52%E -5.91%K -19.35%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 32.77%EV -8.70%E -3.10%K -4.81%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV +11.43%E +0.408%K +0.423%G +0.048%8.6%2026-07-22 06:35
Winamax (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 64.43%EV -11.06%E -7.90%K -27.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -7.40%E -2.60%K -4.00%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -8.47%E -0.368%K -0.385%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-22 07:25
Betsson1.48I 67.57%NM 63.12%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV -20.41%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 07:50
NordicBet1.48I 67.57%NM 63.12%EV -5.97%E -4.04%K -12.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -5.78%E -1.99%K -3.04%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV -20.41%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 07:45
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 63.24%EV -13.60%E -10.00%K -37.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.46%EV -13.90%E -5.25%K -8.43%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.30%EV -20.41%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-22 07:25
Winamax (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 63.41%EV -14.23%E -10.54%K -40.67%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.31%EV -13.90%E -5.25%K -8.43%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.28%EV -20.41%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%16.8%2026-07-22 07:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%5.1%2026-07-22 04:40