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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 09:50 UTC

Final: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 26–16 North Queensland Cowboys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 66.41%1.51fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -6.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.90%66.35%66.41%67.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.421.421.4671.43%70.29%70.67%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 33.59%2.98fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -0.824%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.33%33.65%33.59%35.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.852.892.9337.04%35.12%34.60%34.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local): 66.41%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 33.59%. For North Queensland Cowboys (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.93, with an expected value of -1.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

7 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -3.04%E -2.08%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -9.32%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 02:14
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.72%EV -3.70%E -2.55%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.28%EV -6.63%E -2.38%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 02:15
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.70%E -2.55%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.64%E -2.78%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 22:09
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.36%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 22:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.36%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.96%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 22:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -4.36%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -8.64%E -3.18%K -5.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 01:29
TAB🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 06:39
PlayUp🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.28%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-08 05:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.69%E -4.01%K -13.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-07 03:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.36%E -4.51%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 22:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.36%E -4.51%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 22:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.36%E -4.51%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 22:14
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.36%E -4.51%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 22:15
Casumo🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.36%E -4.51%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 22:15
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.67%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.55%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.33%EV -1.59%E -0.543%K -0.824%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 07:50
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 22:15
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.60%E -0.896%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 22:15
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.27%E -1.14%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 22:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.3%2026-09-09 06:24

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (7)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%7.9%2026-09-07 14:45
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.91%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%7.9%2026-09-08 06:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.20%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.71%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.09%8.0%2026-09-08 06:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.24%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.95%10.2%2026-09-09 11:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.39%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.17%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.45%12.4%2026-09-09 10:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.23%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.40%13.5%2026-09-09 11:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 65.22%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.44%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.34%15.3%2026-09-09 13:10