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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-07-17 08:01 UTC

Final: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 20–18 Newcastle Knights

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 66.72%1.50fair odd
EV -6.59%
Edge -4.71%
Kelly -16.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.97%66.79%66.37%69.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.351.331.4075.76%74.14%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 29.75%3.36fair odd
EV +1.17%
Edge +0.343%
Kelly +0.486%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.94%29.65%30.00%31.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.083.053.4035.09%32.47%32.79%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.53%28.37fair odd
EV +5.76%
Edge +0.192%
Kelly +0.199%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.07%3.56%3.62%4.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
21.0025.4425.0030.004.76%3.93%4.00%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 65.74%EV -6.59%E -4.71%K -16.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -12.22%E -4.14%K -6.27%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +5.76%E +0.192%K +0.199%G +0.011%8.7%2026-07-17 08:00
Winamax (DE)1.39I 71.94%NM 64.97%EV -7.26%E -5.22%K -18.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.69%EV -15.20%E -5.33%K -8.22%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.34%EV -4.82%E -0.178%K -0.185%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-17 08:00
Winamax (FR)1.38I 72.46%NM 65.13%EV -7.93%E -5.74%K -20.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -15.20%E -5.33%K -8.22%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.33%EV -4.82%E -0.178%K -0.185%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-17 08:00
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 67.59%EV -9.26%E -6.81%K -25.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.68%EV -11.87%E -0.475%K -0.495%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-17 07:59
NordicBet1.32I 75.76%NM 69.39%EV -11.93%E -9.04%K -37.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV +1.17%E +0.343%K +0.486%G +0.006%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.66%EV -11.87%E -0.475%K -0.495%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-17 08:00
Betsson1.32I 75.76%NM 68.83%EV -11.93%E -9.04%K -37.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -1.81%E -0.548%K -0.787%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -11.87%E -0.475%K -0.495%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-17 08:00
Tipico (DE)1.32I 75.76%NM 68.25%EV -11.93%E -9.04%K -37.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -4.79%E -1.50%K -2.18%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -11.87%E -0.475%K -0.495%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-17 08:00
Unibet (FR)1.33I 75.19%NM 67.05%EV -11.26%E -8.47%K -34.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -9.25%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.72%EV -15.39%E -0.641%K -0.669%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-17 07:59
NetBet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.01%EV -11.93%E -9.04%K -37.28%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.84%EV -13.12%E -4.49%K -6.83%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -25.97%E -1.24%K -1.30%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-17 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31%0.3%2026-07-17 08:00
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%3.8%2026-07-17 08:00
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93%NM 66.90%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.10%4.5%2026-07-17 07:59
Dabble (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%4.7%2026-07-17 07:59
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-07-17 08:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-07-17 08:00
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-07-17 08:00
SportsBet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.92%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.08%5.1%2026-07-17 08:00
Bet Right1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%5.3%2026-07-17 08:00
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%5.3%2026-07-17 08:00
Casumo1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%5.4%2026-07-17 08:00
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%5.4%2026-07-17 08:00
Unibet1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%5.6%2026-07-17 08:00
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-07-17 07:59
BetRivers1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%6.2%2026-07-17 07:58
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%6.2%2026-07-17 08:00
BetOnline.ag1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%6.4%2026-07-17 08:00
Grosvenor1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%6.5%2026-07-17 08:00
TABtouch1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%6.5%2026-07-17 08:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%9.9%2026-07-17 08:00