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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v New Zealand Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 59.15%1.69fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.09%59.08%59.15%60.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.541.6567.57%64.56%64.94%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 36.53%2.74fair odd
EV -6.84%
Edge -2.68%
Kelly -4.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.37%36.65%36.53%37.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.502.5542.55%40.38%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.31%23.18fair odd
EV +25.12%
Edge +0.866%
Kelly +0.897%
Growth +0.225%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.18%4.27%4.31%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.4419.0029.005.56%4.89%5.26%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local): 59.15%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 36.53%; Draw: 4.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.12%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.82%EV -8.90%E -5.78%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.00%EV -9.04%E -3.63%K -6.06%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%EV +25.12%E +0.866%K +0.897%G +0.225%8.5%2026-04-05 02:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.95%EV -11.27%E -7.51%K -22.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.97%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.09%EV -5.08%E -0.231%K -0.242%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 11:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 59.27%EV -12.45%E -8.41%K -25.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.55%EV -12.32%E -5.13%K -8.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.18%EV -9.40%E -0.447%K -0.470%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-04 11:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.12%EV -11.27%E -7.51%K -22.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.37%EV -6.84%E -2.68%K -4.42%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -13.71%E -0.685%K -0.722%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 10:09
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -7.13%E -4.54%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -18.02%E -0.949%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-01 00:03
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.46%EV -7.13%E -4.54%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.83%EV -18.02%E -0.949%K -1.00%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-01 00:04
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -2.40%E -1.45%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -22.34%E -1.24%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 09:30
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -2.40%E -1.45%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -8.67%E -3.47%K -5.78%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -22.34%E -1.24%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 09:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.41%EV -12.45%E -8.41%K -25.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.79%EV -14.15%E -6.02%K -10.48%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.80%EV -22.34%E -1.24%K -1.31%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-05 03:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%0.5%2026-04-05 03:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%3.2%2026-04-05 03:55
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%3.9%2026-04-05 03:44
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%4.1%2026-04-05 03:05
Bet Right🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%4.6%2026-04-05 03:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%5.0%2026-04-05 03:50
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%5.1%2026-04-05 02:40
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 22:34
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 22:34
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 22:34
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 22:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 22:34
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 22:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-04 22:34
Dabble (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%5.3%2026-04-05 03:00
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-04-01 00:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-04-01 00:05
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%6.1%2026-04-04 22:34
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%6.1%2026-04-04 22:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%6.2%2026-04-04 12:00