The School of Odds
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Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 10:02 UTC

Final: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 28–22 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 50.45%1.98fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.96%50.35%50.33%51.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.811.781.9257.80%55.12%56.18%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 45.37%2.20fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.98%45.27%45.53%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.011.992.1052.36%49.68%50.25%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.18%23.90fair odd
EV +25.53%
Edge +0.851%
Kelly +0.880%
Growth +0.225%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.07%4.38%4.14%6.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0021.0021.0030.006.67%4.76%4.76%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local): 50.45%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 45.37%; Draw: 4.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.90. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.53%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.63%EV -8.19%E -4.50%K -9.99%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.30%EV -9.71%E -4.88%K -9.81%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +25.53%E +0.851%K +0.880%G +0.225%8.5%2026-05-29 09:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.60%EV -10.21%E -5.73%K -13.08%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.49%EV -10.17%E -5.14%K -10.38%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -3.76%E -0.163%K -0.171%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-29 09:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.36%EV -10.21%E -5.73%K -13.08%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.74%EV -11.08%E -5.65%K -11.54%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.90%EV -3.76%E -0.163%K -0.171%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-29 09:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.30%EV -12.73%E -7.36%K -17.44%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.56%EV -13.34%E -6.99%K -14.66%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -12.13%E -0.578%K -0.606%G +0.000%14.9%2026-05-29 09:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.52%EV -11.72%E -6.70%K -15.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.98%EV -6.99%E -3.41%K -6.66%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -16.31%E -0.816%K -0.859%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-29 09:59
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -3.14%E -1.64%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.77%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -37.23%E -2.48%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-29 10:00
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.96%EV -3.14%E -1.64%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.77%EV -4.72%E -2.25%K -4.29%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -37.23%E -2.48%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-29 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 54.00%2.16I 46.30%NM 46.00%0.6%2026-05-29 10:00
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.01%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.99%4.0%2026-05-29 09:59
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%4.4%2026-05-29 09:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%4.5%2026-05-29 09:59
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%4.6%2026-05-29 09:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-29 10:00
Neds🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-29 09:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-05-29 09:59
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-05-29 09:59
LeoVegas🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-29 09:59
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-29 09:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-29 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-29 09:59
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-29 09:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-29 10:00
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-29 09:59
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-29 09:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-29 09:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-29 09:59
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-29 09:59
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-29 09:56
Matchbook◎1.71I 58.48%NM 53.41%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.59%9.5%2026-05-29 09:59