The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 05:01 UTC

Final: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks 20–24 Canberra Raiders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 71.81%1.39fair odd
EV -6.64%
Edge -5.11%
Kelly -22.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.39%71.61%71.99%72.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.271.3081.97%79.13%79.05%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -6.83%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%24.62%24.36%26.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.673.8029.41%27.44%27.21%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.67%27.26fair odd
EV +21.08%
Edge +0.639%
Kelly +0.659%
Growth +0.139%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.78%3.77%3.65%5.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.3824.0033.005.56%4.10%4.17%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local): 71.81%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 24.52%; Draw: 3.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 27.26. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 33.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.08%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.72%EV -8.08%E -6.31%K -28.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -11.73%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.78%EV +21.08%E +0.639%K +0.659%G +0.139%8.9%2026-08-15 04:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.39%EV -8.08%E -6.31%K -28.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -16.64%E -4.89%K -6.93%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.11%EV +6.40%E +0.221%K +0.229%G +0.015%11.0%2026-08-15 04:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.32%EV -10.95%E -8.83%K -45.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.45%EV -4.61%E -0.177%K -0.184%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 04:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.87%EV -10.95%E -8.83%K -45.64%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.42%EV -10.51%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.71%EV -11.94%E -0.498%K -0.519%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 04:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.46%EV -12.39%E -10.16%K -56.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -14.18%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.63%EV -11.94%E -0.498%K -0.519%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-15 04:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.83%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -9.28%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.90%EV -15.61%E -0.679%K -0.710%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 04:25
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.70%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.11%EV -33.96%E -1.89%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 04:40
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.70%EV -6.64%E -5.11%K -22.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -6.83%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.11%EV -33.96%E -1.89%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 04:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%4.4%2026-08-15 05:00
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.60%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.40%4.7%2026-08-15 04:59
Neds🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%4.7%2026-08-11 21:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%4.7%2026-08-11 21:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%4.9%2026-08-15 04:49
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%5.1%2026-08-15 04:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-08-15 04:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-08-15 04:54
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-08-15 04:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-08-15 04:55
TABtouch🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-08-15 04:54
TAB🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-08-15 04:38
PlayUp🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%5.3%2026-08-15 04:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-08-14 09:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-08-12 23:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-08-15 04:40
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%6.1%2026-08-15 04:54
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%6.1%2026-08-15 04:54
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%6.1%2026-08-15 04:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-08-15 05:00