Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks v Canberra Raiders

2026-08-15 05:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

71%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local)

Prediction 70.86%1.41fair odd

EV -7.88%

Edge -6.06%

Kelly -26.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.31%70.86%70.86%72.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.211.241.231.3082.64%80.32%80.97%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 26.17%3.82fair odd

EV -3.17%

Edge -0.858%

Kelly -1.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

24.38%26.17%26.17%26.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.353.483.443.7029.85%28.74%29.11%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.97%33.65fair odd

EV -7.88%

Edge -0.254%

Kelly -0.263%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 31.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.97%2.97%2.97%4.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

21.0025.0024.0031.004.76%4.00%4.17%3.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Local): 70.86%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 26.17%; Draw: 2.97%. For Canberra Raiders (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -3.17%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.86%EV -7.88%E -6.06%K -26.28%G +0.000%	3.52I 28.41%NM 26.17%EV -7.88%E -2.24%K -3.13%G +0.000%	31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV -7.88%E -0.254%K -0.263%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-06 07:09
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 72.15%EV -11.43%E -9.14%K -45.71%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -3.17%E -0.858%K -1.18%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.47%EV -22.74%E -0.875%K -0.910%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-08-06 07:50
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 70.31%EV -13.55%E -11.11%K -61.60%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 25.61%EV -12.33%E -3.68%K -5.25%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.08%EV -37.60%E -1.79%K -1.88%G +0.000%	16.6%	2026-08-06 07:49
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.21I 82.64%NM 70.61%EV -14.26%E -11.79%K -67.91%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 25.50%EV -12.33%E -3.68%K -5.25%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 3.88%EV -34.63%E -1.57%K -1.65%G +0.000%	17.0%	2026-08-06 06:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.93%	3.27I 30.58%NM 29.07%	5.2%	2026-08-06 01:39