The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Canterbury Bulldogs v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 04:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 70.23%1.42fair odd
EV -3.08%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -8.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.85%70.54%69.76%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.351.331.3875.19%74.29%74.91%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 29.77%3.36fair odd
EV +4.19%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%29.46%30.24%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.243.293.5032.79%30.85%30.40%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 70.23%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 29.77%. For St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.19%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +4.19%E +1.20%K +1.68%G +0.070%3.8%2026-03-01 03:29
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.59%E -4.96%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -1.76%E -0.534%K -0.767%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-01 04:25
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.00%EV -5.89%E -4.40%K -17.32%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.00%EV -2.36%E -0.719%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-01 04:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.19%E -3.84%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.25%E -1.00%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 04:25
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.19%E -3.84%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.25%E -1.00%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 04:25
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.49%E -3.30%K -12.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.74%E -1.48%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 04:25
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.76%EV -3.78%E -2.76%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.24%EV -5.93%E -1.88%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-01 04:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.08%E -2.23%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.23%E -1.98%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 21:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.78%E -2.76%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 04:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -3.78%E -2.76%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 00:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.19%E -3.84%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.72%E -2.49%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 03:15
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.08%E -2.23%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -9.21%E -3.02%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 04:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.20%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%5.8%2026-03-01 04:25
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.20%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%5.8%2026-03-01 04:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.22%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.60%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.18%8.6%2026-03-01 04:25
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%8.6%2026-03-01 04:22
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%9.1%2026-02-26 21:34
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.42%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%9.1%2026-02-26 21:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.55%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.77%10.5%2026-03-01 04:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.29%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%11.1%2026-02-27 19:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.39%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.88%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.73%11.6%2026-03-01 04:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 67.67%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.40%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.94%15.5%2026-03-01 04:25