Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs

2026-08-14 10:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

49%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 48.96%2.04fair odd

EV -7.95%

Edge -4.23%

Kelly -9.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.55%48.96%48.96%48.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.761.811.811.8856.82%55.17%55.40%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit)

Prediction 47.20%2.12fair odd

EV -7.95%

Edge -4.08%

Kelly -8.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.81%47.20%47.20%47.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.821.881.881.9554.95%53.12%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.84%26.07fair odd

EV -7.95%

Edge -0.331%

Kelly -0.346%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.84%3.84%3.84%4.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

19.0020.7520.0024.005.26%4.82%5.00%4.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 48.96%; South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit): 47.20%; Draw: 3.84%. For South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.95, with an expected value of -7.95%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 48.96%EV -7.95%E -4.23%K -9.04%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.20%EV -7.95%E -4.08%K -8.37%G +0.000%	24.00I 4.17%NM 3.84%EV -7.95%E -0.331%K -0.346%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-08-06 01:39
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.84I 54.35%NM 48.88%EV -9.91%E -5.39%K -11.80%G +0.000%	1.92I 52.08%NM 46.84%EV -9.37%E -4.88%K -10.18%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.28%EV -19.46%E -0.927%K -0.973%G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-08-06 01:40
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 48.66%EV -13.34%E -7.54%K -17.32%G +0.000%	1.84I 54.35%NM 46.81%EV -13.15%E -7.14%K -15.65%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.53%EV -27.13%E -1.43%K -1.51%G +0.000%	16.1%	2026-08-06 01:40
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 48.55%EV -13.83%E -7.86%K -18.20%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 46.95%EV -14.09%E -7.74%K -17.18%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.50%EV -27.13%E -1.43%K -1.51%G +0.000%	17.0%	2026-08-06 01:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%	2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%	4.3%	2026-08-06 01:39