The School of Odds
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Canterbury Bulldogs v North Queensland Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 08:00 UTC

Final: Canterbury Bulldogs 12–28 North Queensland Cowboys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 50.06%2.00fair odd
EV -5.89%
Edge -3.13%
Kelly -6.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.90%50.06%50.06%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.821.801.8857.80%54.99%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 45.54%2.20fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.77%45.47%45.54%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.012.002.1052.08%49.86%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.40%22.72fair odd
EV +5.63%
Edge +0.234%
Kelly +0.245%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.84%4.47%4.40%5.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.1420.0024.005.56%4.96%5.00%4.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 50.06%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 45.54%; Draw: 4.40%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 24.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.63%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.08%EV -7.89%E -4.29%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.08%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.84%EV +5.63%E +0.234%K +0.245%G +0.014%8.5%2026-05-01 01:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.89%E -5.50%K -12.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.91%EV -10.74%E -5.48%K -11.19%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.09%EV -3.18%E -0.144%K -0.151%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-01 01:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -9.89%E -5.50%K -12.36%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 45.82%EV -10.74%E -5.48%K -11.19%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.28%EV -7.58%E -0.361%K -0.379%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-01 01:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -9.89%E -5.50%K -12.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.23%EV -8.92%E -4.46%K -8.92%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.52%EV -11.98%E -0.599%K -0.630%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-30 23:59
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -5.89%E -3.13%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.77%EV -4.37%E -2.08%K -3.97%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -20.78%E -1.15%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 00:44
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.01%EV -5.89%E -3.13%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.77%EV -4.37%E -2.08%K -3.97%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.22%EV -20.78%E -1.15%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 00:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.07%EV -13.40%E -7.74%K -18.35%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.12%EV -12.57%E -6.54%K -13.66%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.81%EV -20.78%E -1.15%K -1.22%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-30 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.15%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.85%1.5%2026-05-01 02:14
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%4.3%2026-05-01 00:00
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%4.5%2026-05-01 01:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%4.8%2026-04-30 23:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-05-01 00:00
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%5.1%2026-05-01 00:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-05-01 00:00
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%5.1%2026-05-01 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-04-30 23:59
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-04-30 23:58
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-01 00:00
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-01 00:00
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-01 00:00
LeoVegas🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-04-30 23:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-05-01 00:00
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-05-01 00:00
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-05-01 00:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-04-30 23:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-05-01 00:00
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%6.1%2026-04-30 23:59
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%6.3%2026-05-01 00:00