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Canterbury Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights

Kickoff: 2026-03-28 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 75.17%1.33fair odd
EV -6.79%
Edge -5.48%
Kelly -28.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.87%75.35%75.17%76.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.201.201.2486.21%83.26%83.33%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 21.38%4.68fair odd
EV +6.92%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.73%
Growth +0.120%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.78%21.16%21.38%23.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.424.505.0025.64%22.61%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.45%28.97fair odd
EV +13.89%
Edge +0.421%
Kelly +0.434%
Growth +0.060%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%3.49%3.45%4.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0025.8926.0033.004.55%3.86%3.85%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 75.17%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 21.38%; Draw: 3.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 33.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.89%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.96%EV -8.30%E -6.80%K -37.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +6.92%E +1.38%K +1.73%G +0.120%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -24.07%E -1.09%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-28 02:55
NordicBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.96%EV -8.30%E -6.80%K -37.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.78%EV +6.92%E +1.38%K +1.73%G +0.120%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.27%EV -24.07%E -1.09%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-28 02:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.17%EV -9.80%E -8.17%K -49.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -3.78%E -0.839%K -1.08%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.52%EV -10.26%E -0.395%K -0.411%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-26 09:35
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.17%EV -9.80%E -8.17%K -49.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -3.78%E -0.839%K -1.08%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.52%EV -10.26%E -0.395%K -0.411%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-26 09:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.67%EV -11.30%E -9.58%K -62.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -3.78%E -0.839%K -1.08%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.23%EV -3.36%E -0.120%K -0.125%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-28 03:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.38%EV -12.06%E -10.30%K -70.92%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.31%EV -5.91%E -1.34%K -1.74%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.31%EV -6.81%E -0.252%K -0.262%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-28 03:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.21%EV -6.79%E -5.48%K -28.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.47%E -3.62%K -4.82%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +13.89%E +0.421%K +0.434%G +0.060%8.7%2026-03-24 05:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -8.30%E -6.80%K -37.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -14.47%E -3.62%K -4.82%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -13.72%E -0.549%K -0.572%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-24 21:48
NetBet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 74.31%EV -12.81%E -11.04%K -80.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.10%EV -16.61%E -4.26%K -5.73%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.59%EV -17.17%E -0.715%K -0.746%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-28 02:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.6%2026-03-28 03:00
PlayUp🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%4.3%2026-03-28 03:05
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.82%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.18%5.0%2026-03-28 02:15
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-03-25 00:46
Betr (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-25 01:44
LeoVegas🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-27 00:55
TABtouch🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-27 00:54
Grosvenor🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-27 00:55
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-27 00:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-27 00:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-27 00:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%5.0%2026-03-27 00:55
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%5.2%2026-03-28 02:25
Bet Right🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%5.2%2026-03-28 02:40
TAB🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%5.2%2026-03-28 02:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%5.5%2026-03-28 02:35
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%5.5%2026-03-28 02:35
Dabble (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%5.5%2026-03-28 03:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.20%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.80%5.8%2026-03-27 04:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-03-24 06:50
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-03-27 00:54
Unibet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-03-27 00:54