Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors

2026-07-25 07:30 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

35%

62%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 34.61%2.89fair odd

EV -4.81%

Edge -1.75%

Kelly -2.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.81%34.61%34.61%34.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.552.642.632.7539%38%38%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 62.21%1.61fair odd

EV -7.93%

Edge -5.36%

Kelly -16.52%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.10%62.21%62.21%63.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.381.421.411.4872%70%71%68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.17%31.50fair odd

EV -7.93%

Edge -0.273%

Kelly -0.283%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.17%3.17%3.17%4.55%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

19.0022.5021.0029.005%4%5%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Winamax (DE)	2.75I 36.36%NM 32.81%EV -4.81%E -1.75%K -2.75%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 63.09%EV -11.04%E -7.72%K -25.67%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.10%EV -30.15%E -1.37%K -1.44%G +0.000%	10.8%	2026-07-15 06:49
Marathon Bet	2.66I 37.59%NM 34.61%EV -7.93%E -2.98%K -4.78%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.21%EV -7.93%E -5.36%K -16.52%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV -7.93%E -0.273%K -0.283%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-15 06:24
Unibet (FR)	2.60I 38.46%NM 33.25%EV -10.00%E -3.85%K -6.25%G +0.000%	1.39I 71.94%NM 62.20%EV -13.53%E -9.73%K -34.68%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.55%EV -39.68%E -2.09%K -2.20%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-07-15 06:49
Winamax (FR)	2.55I 39.22%NM 33.61%EV -11.73%E -4.60%K -7.57%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 62.10%EV -14.15%E -10.25%K -37.23%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.29%EV -36.50%E -1.83%K -1.92%G +0.000%	16.7%	2026-07-15 06:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%	5.0%	2026-07-15 02:59