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Canterbury Bulldogs v Melbourne Storm

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 10:02 UTC

Final: Canterbury Bulldogs 30–20 Melbourne Storm

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 52.67%1.90fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -5.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.46%52.75%52.67%54.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.731.701.8261.35%57.95%58.82%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melbourne Storm (Visit)

Prediction 43.77%2.28fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.677%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.43%43.67%43.77%45.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.052.2550.00%47.78%48.78%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.56%28.09fair odd
EV +3.25%
Edge +0.112%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.07%3.59%3.56%5.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0024.4325.0029.005.56%4.09%4.00%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 52.67%; Melbourne Storm (Visit): 43.77%; Draw: 3.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.09. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.25%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.97%EV -10.46%E -6.15%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -10.28%E -5.01%K -9.79%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.11%EV +3.25%E +0.112%K +0.116%G +0.004%11.1%2026-05-22 10:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.39%EV -10.46%E -6.15%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.53%EV -12.46%E -6.23%K -12.46%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.07%EV +3.25%E +0.112%K +0.116%G +0.004%12.3%2026-05-22 10:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -8.88%E -5.13%K -12.16%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.29%EV -6.78%E -3.18%K -6.00%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV -3.87%E -0.143%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-22 09:59
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.84%EV -10.46%E -6.15%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.43%EV -1.52%E -0.677%K -1.22%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.73%EV -10.99%E -0.440%K -0.458%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-22 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.46%EV -5.19%E -2.88%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.41%EV -12.46%E -6.23%K -12.46%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.13%EV -21.67%E -0.985%K -1.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-22 09:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.06%EV -14.14%E -8.68%K -22.45%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 42.82%EV -11.59%E -5.74%K -11.36%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.12%EV -25.23%E -1.20%K -1.26%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-22 10:00
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.86%EV -4.14%E -2.27%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.90%EV -3.71%E -1.69%K -3.09%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.24%EV -35.92%E -2.00%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-22 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%0.7%2026-05-22 10:00
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 52.55%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.45%2.3%2026-05-22 09:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.99%3.8%2026-05-22 10:00
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%4.1%2026-05-22 09:59
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-05-22 10:00
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%4.6%2026-05-22 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-05-22 10:00
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-22 10:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-22 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-22 10:00
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-22 10:00
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-22 10:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%5.8%2026-05-22 09:59
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%6.2%2026-05-22 09:59
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%6.2%2026-05-22 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%6.2%2026-05-22 10:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%6.2%2026-05-22 10:00
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%6.2%2026-05-22 10:00
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.21%7.4%2026-05-22 10:00
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-05-22 10:00
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%9.4%2026-05-22 10:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.89%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.11%9.7%2026-05-22 10:00