The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Canterbury Bulldogs v Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-06-20 09:35 UTC

Final: Canterbury Bulldogs 13–12 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd
EV -2.77%
Edge -0.839%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%29.53%29.46%31.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.143.203.3034.48%31.82%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 66.75%1.50fair odd
EV -5.22%
Edge -3.67%
Kelly -12.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.99%66.49%66.75%68.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.381.4276.92%73.15%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.79%26.40fair odd
EV +9.85%
Edge +0.340%
Kelly +0.352%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.17%3.99%3.79%5.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.4323.0029.005.56%4.46%4.35%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 29.46%; Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (Visit): 66.75%; Draw: 3.79%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 26.40. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.85%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -10.14%E -3.32%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.66%EV -7.89%E -5.72%K -20.76%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV +9.85%E +0.340%K +0.352%G +0.035%8.7%2026-06-20 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -14.56%E -5.02%K -7.66%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -6.55%E -4.68%K -16.38%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV -5.30%E -0.212%K -0.221%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-15 04:51
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -4.24%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.28%EV -11.22%E -8.44%K -34.01%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.78%EV -9.09%E -0.379%K -0.395%G +0.000%10.1%2026-06-19 21:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -5.72%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.03%EV -11.89%E -9.01%K -37.16%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.90%EV -12.87%E -0.560%K -0.585%G +0.000%11.4%2026-06-19 21:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.92%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 66.74%EV -13.23%E -10.17%K -44.09%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.34%EV -24.24%E -1.21%K -1.28%G +0.000%15.3%2026-06-20 09:30
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -5.22%E -3.67%K -12.42%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -31.81%E -1.77%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-20 04:10
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -2.77%E -0.839%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.26%EV -5.22%E -3.67%K -12.42%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.23%EV -31.81%E -1.77%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-20 04:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%1.2%2026-06-20 09:30
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%4.2%2026-06-20 09:29
Pinnacle🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.95%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.05%4.3%2026-06-20 09:30
TAB🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%4.7%2026-06-20 08:49
PlayUp🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%4.8%2026-06-18 23:00
SportsBet🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.87%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.13%4.8%2026-06-20 08:20
Casumo🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-06-19 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-06-19 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-06-19 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-06-19 14:20
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-06-19 14:20
TABtouch🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%5.3%2026-06-19 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%5.3%2026-06-20 08:50
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%5.3%2026-06-20 08:50
Dabble (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%5.3%2026-06-18 23:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%5.3%2026-06-20 07:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-06-16 07:40
Neds🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%5.8%2026-06-16 07:40
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-06-19 12:30
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-06-19 12:30
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%5.8%2026-06-19 23:39
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 41.18%1.40I 71.43%NM 58.82%21.4%2026-06-20 09:30