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Canterbury Bulldogs v Canberra Raiders

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 07:31 UTC

Final: Canterbury Bulldogs 16–40 Canberra Raiders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 56.22%1.78fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -6.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.89%56.34%56.05%58.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.601.7064.52%61.81%62.50%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Canberra Raiders (Visit)

Prediction 39.34%2.54fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -2.32%
Kelly -3.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.48%39.09%39.49%39.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.322.312.4045.45%43.14%43.29%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.43%22.55fair odd
EV +24.16%
Edge +0.863%
Kelly +0.895%
Growth +0.216%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.29%4.56%4.46%6.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0019.7820.0028.006.67%5.06%5.00%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 56.22%; Canberra Raiders (Visit): 39.34%; Draw: 4.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.55. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.16%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.85%EV -8.92%E -5.51%K -14.39%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.87%EV -9.11%E -3.95%K -6.96%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV +24.16%E +0.863%K +0.895%G +0.216%8.6%2026-07-11 07:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.44%EV -10.05%E -6.28%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.26%EV -9.51%E -4.13%K -7.31%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV -6.88%E -0.328%K -0.344%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-11 07:29
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.03%EV -7.23%E -4.38%K -11.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -7.54%E -3.21%K -5.59%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.62%EV -11.32%E -0.566%K -0.596%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-11 07:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -12.86%E -8.29%K -23.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.48%EV -5.57%E -2.32%K -3.98%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -11.32%E -0.566%K -0.596%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-11 07:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.83%EV -10.05%E -6.28%K -16.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.70%EV -11.48%E -5.10%K -9.18%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.47%EV -11.32%E -0.566%K -0.596%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-11 07:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.12%EV -12.86%E -8.29%K -23.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.54%EV -13.44%E -6.11%K -11.20%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.35%EV -11.32%E -0.566%K -0.596%G +0.000%15.0%2026-07-11 07:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.85%EV -10.61%E -6.67%K -17.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.47%EV -11.48%E -5.10%K -9.18%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.67%EV -15.75%E -0.829%K -0.875%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-11 07:28
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.89%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.57%E -2.32%K -3.98%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -33.49%E -2.23%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 07:30
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.89%EV -4.42%E -2.60%K -6.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.57%E -2.32%K -3.98%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -33.49%E -2.23%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 07:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.6%2026-07-11 07:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%3.2%2026-07-11 07:30
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%4.1%2026-07-11 07:29
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-07-11 07:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-07-11 07:30
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-07-11 07:27
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-07-11 07:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-07-11 07:29
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-07-11 07:29
Dabble (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-07-11 07:29
SportsBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%5.2%2026-07-11 07:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-07-11 07:30
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%5.4%2026-07-11 07:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-07-11 07:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-07-11 07:29
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-07-11 07:29
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%5.8%2026-07-11 07:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-07-11 07:30
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%6.2%2026-07-11 07:28
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%6.7%2026-07-11 07:29

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