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Canterbury Bulldogs v Brisbane Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-09-03 09:52 UTC

Final: Canterbury Bulldogs 20–34 Brisbane Broncos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canterbury Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 66.66%1.50fair odd
EV -5.34%
Edge -3.76%
Kelly -12.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%66.53%66.69%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.361.351.4276.34%73.46%74.35%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd
EV -7.21%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -3.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.72%29.54%29.43%30.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.083.103.1533.90%32.47%32.26%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.88%25.78fair odd
EV +24.12%
Edge +0.754%
Kelly +0.778%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%3.93%3.88%5.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.8822.5032.005.56%4.37%4.44%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canterbury Bulldogs (Local): 66.66%; Brisbane Broncos (Visit): 29.46%; Draw: 3.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.12%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.80%EV -8.00%E -5.80%K -21.07%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.32%EV -10.45%E -3.44%K -5.12%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +24.12%E +0.754%K +0.778%G +0.188%8.5%2026-09-03 09:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.14%EV -10.00%E -7.41%K -28.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.63%EV -3.03%E -0.121%K -0.126%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 08:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.51%EV -10.67%E -7.96%K -31.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -7.21%E -2.29%K -3.35%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.77%EV -6.91%E -0.288%K -0.300%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-03 09:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.26%EV -11.34%E -8.52%K -34.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.89%EV -10.79%E -0.469%K -0.490%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 09:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.97%EV -10.67%E -7.96%K -31.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.08%EV -14.67%E -0.667%K -0.698%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-03 09:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 66.38%EV -12.67%E -9.67%K -40.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.48%EV -13.10%E -4.44%K -6.72%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -18.54%E -0.883%K -0.927%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-03 09:45
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -5.34%E -3.76%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -30.18%E -1.68%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 09:26
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.06%EV -5.34%E -3.76%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.80%EV -8.68%E -2.80%K -4.13%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -30.18%E -1.68%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-03 09:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-09-03 09:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%3.8%2026-09-03 09:35
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-09-03 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-09-03 09:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-09-03 09:35
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-09-03 09:35
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-09-03 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-09-03 09:35
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-09-03 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-09-03 09:45
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%4.9%2026-09-03 09:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-09-03 09:45
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%5.1%2026-09-03 09:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%5.3%2026-09-03 09:20
PlayUp🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%5.4%2026-09-03 09:45
Grosvenor🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%6.4%2026-09-03 07:55
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%6.4%2026-09-03 09:00
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%6.4%2026-09-03 08:45
Matchbook◎1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-09-03 09:20
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.50%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.50%8.2%2026-09-03 09:30