The School of Odds
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Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 05:01 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 56–10 Wests Tigers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 77.87%1.28fair odd
EV -8.11%
Edge -6.87%
Kelly -45.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.73%78.09%77.64%79.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.161.181.1888.50%85.88%84.75%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 18.61%5.37fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.262%
Kelly -0.323%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.94%18.44%18.89%19.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.904.855.3022.22%20.41%20.62%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.52%28.39fair odd
EV +26.82%
Edge +0.745%
Kelly +0.766%
Growth +0.205%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.57%3.47%3.47%4.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0026.5625.0036.004.55%3.77%4.00%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 77.87%; Wests Tigers (Visit): 18.61%; Draw: 3.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.39. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +26.82%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.18I 84.75%NM 78.37%EV -8.11%E -6.87%K -45.07%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.07%EV -9.76%E -2.01%K -2.54%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.57%EV +26.82%E +0.745%K +0.766%G +0.205%8.1%2026-07-25 00:20
Winamax (DE)1.16I 86.21%NM 77.74%EV -9.67%E -8.34%K -60.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.60%EV -14.41%E -3.13%K -4.00%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.65%EV +19.77%E +0.582%K +0.599%G +0.118%10.9%2026-07-25 05:00
Winamax (FR)1.18I 84.75%NM 77.13%EV -8.11%E -6.87%K -45.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.37%EV -12.55%E -2.67%K -3.39%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%EV -8.41%E -0.323%K -0.336%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-25 05:00
LeoVegas1.18I 84.75%NM 77.93%EV -8.11%E -6.87%K -45.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -6.97%E -1.39%K -1.74%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.68%EV -11.93%E -0.477%K -0.497%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-25 00:20
Tipico (DE)1.13I 88.50%NM 79.47%EV -12.01%E -10.62%K -92.35%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -1.39%E -0.262%K -0.323%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.59%EV -11.93%E -0.477%K -0.497%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-24 04:40
NetBet (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 77.14%EV -12.01%E -10.62%K -92.35%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.37%EV -16.27%E -3.62%K -4.65%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.49%EV -11.93%E -0.477%K -0.497%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-25 04:55
Unibet (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 76.73%EV -9.67%E -8.34%K -60.43%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.56%EV -15.34%E -3.37%K -4.32%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.71%EV -15.45%E -0.644%K -0.672%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-25 00:19
Betsson1.18I 84.75%NM 78.35%EV -8.11%E -6.87%K -45.07%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -1.39%E -0.262%K -0.323%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -22.50%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-24 10:40
NordicBet1.18I 84.75%NM 78.35%EV -8.11%E -6.87%K -45.07%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.44%EV -1.39%E -0.262%K -0.323%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -22.50%E -1.02%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-24 10:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.21I 82.64%NM 80.20%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.80%3.1%2026-07-25 05:00
BetOnline.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%4.7%2026-07-24 22:40
Pinnacle1.19I 84.03%NM 80.07%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.93%5.0%2026-07-25 04:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%5.1%2026-07-25 04:20
Neds1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%5.1%2026-07-25 04:20
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%5.2%2026-07-25 04:50
Bet Right1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%5.2%2026-07-25 02:50
Casumo1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%5.3%2026-07-25 02:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%5.3%2026-07-25 02:15
Unibet (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%5.3%2026-07-25 02:15
Unibet (NL)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%5.3%2026-07-25 02:15
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%5.3%2026-07-23 05:34
PlayUp1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-07-25 05:00
Dabble (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%5.5%2026-07-24 03:50
TAB1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%5.6%2026-07-25 04:55
Unibet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%6.0%2026-07-25 02:15
BetRivers1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%6.0%2026-07-25 02:15
PointsBet (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%6.2%2026-07-24 05:45
TABtouch1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%7.7%2026-07-25 05:00
Grosvenor1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%7.7%2026-07-25 05:00