Canberra Raiders v Wests Tigers

2026-07-25 05:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

2 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

67%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 66.88%1.50fair odd

EV -7.03%

Edge -5.06%

Kelly -18.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.24%66.88%66.88%67.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.281.341.351.3978%75%74%72%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Wests Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 29.46%3.39fair odd

EV -2.77%

Edge -0.838%

Kelly -1.20%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.24%29.46%29.46%30.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.953.123.103.3034%32%32%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 3.65%27.38fair odd

EV +9.57%

Edge +0.319%

Kelly +0.330%

Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.07%3.65%3.65%4.29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

20.0023.1722.0030.005%4%5%3%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.39I 71.94%NM 66.24%EV -7.03%E -5.06%K -18.03%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -11.61%E -3.87%K -5.80%G +0.000%	30.00I 3.33%NM 3.07%EV +9.57%E +0.319%K +0.330%G +0.032%	8.6%	2026-07-15 06:00
Winamax (DE)	1.33I 75.19%NM 67.98%EV -11.05%E -8.31%K -33.47%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -5.71%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000%	24.00I 4.17%NM 3.77%EV -12.34%E -0.514%K -0.537%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-07-15 06:34
Betsson	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.53%EV -7.70%E -5.58%K -20.27%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV -19.65%E -0.893%K -0.936%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-15 03:19
NordicBet	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.53%EV -7.70%E -5.58%K -20.27%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -2.77%E -0.838%K -1.20%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV -19.65%E -0.893%K -0.936%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-15 03:19
Winamax (FR)	1.28I 78.13%NM 66.90%EV -14.39%E -11.24%K -51.39%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.03%EV -13.08%E -4.43%K -6.71%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.08%EV -23.30%E -1.11%K -1.16%G +0.000%	16.8%	2026-07-15 06:44
Unibet (FR)	1.29I 77.52%NM 66.59%EV -13.72%E -10.64%K -47.31%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 29.12%EV -13.08%E -4.43%K -6.71%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.29%EV -26.95%E -1.35%K -1.42%G +0.000%	16.4%	2026-07-15 06:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%	4.9%	2026-07-15 02:59
Betr (AU)	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%	6.0%	2026-07-15 05:35