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Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters

Kickoff: 2026-06-05 10:01 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 0–26 Sydney Roosters

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 39.45%2.54fair odd
EV -5.33%
Edge -2.22%
Kelly -3.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.13%39.47%39.45%41.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.292.302.4047.17%43.64%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 56.66%1.77fair odd
EV -2.55%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.61%56.22%56.66%57.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.631.601.7263.69%61.51%62.50%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.90%25.65fair odd
EV +9.16%
Edge +0.327%
Kelly +0.339%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.21%4.31%3.90%6.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0022.5724.0028.006.67%4.43%4.17%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 39.45%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 56.66%; Draw: 3.90%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.65. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 28.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.16%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.62%EV -8.49%E -3.66%K -6.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.10%EV -8.78%E -5.46%K -14.40%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.28%EV +9.16%E +0.327%K +0.339%G +0.031%8.8%2026-06-05 09:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.93%EV -11.25%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.86%EV -10.48%E -6.64%K -18.08%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.21%EV +9.16%E +0.327%K +0.339%G +0.031%11.3%2026-06-05 09:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.93%EV -11.25%E -5.00%K -9.00%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.86%EV -10.48%E -6.64%K -18.08%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.21%EV +9.16%E +0.327%K +0.339%G +0.031%11.3%2026-06-05 10:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.01%EV -16.38%E -7.72%K -14.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.37%EV -11.05%E -7.04%K -19.39%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.62%EV -6.43%E -0.268%K -0.280%G +0.000%15.0%2026-06-05 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -9.28%E -4.03%K -7.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.32%EV -9.35%E -5.84%K -15.58%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -22.03%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-05 10:00
Betsson🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.61%EV -2.55%E -1.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -41.52%E -2.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.33%E -2.22%K -3.81%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.61%EV -2.55%E -1.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -41.52%E -2.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-05 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%0.9%2026-06-05 10:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.81%1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%3.5%2026-06-05 10:00
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%4.2%2026-06-05 09:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-06-05 09:59
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-06-05 09:59
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-06-05 09:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-06-05 09:59
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-06-05 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-06-05 09:59
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-06-05 09:59
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-06-05 10:00
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%5.1%2026-06-05 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-06-05 10:00
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-06-05 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-06-05 10:00
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-06-05 09:59
Dabble (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%5.2%2026-06-05 09:59
SportsBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%5.2%2026-06-05 10:00
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%5.8%2026-06-05 09:59
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%5.8%2026-06-05 10:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%6.2%2026-06-05 10:00