The School of Odds
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Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 04:01 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 24–16 St George Illawarra Dragons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 69.91%1.43fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -9.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%69.53%70.05%71.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.301.291.3879.37%76.85%77.52%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 26.72%3.74fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.11%26.85%26.90%28.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.243.403.403.6030.86%29.42%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.37%29.70fair odd
EV +17.83%
Edge +0.510%
Kelly +0.524%
Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 35.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.66%3.61%3.05%5.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0028.1331.0035.005.56%3.56%3.23%2.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 69.91%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 26.72%; Draw: 3.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.70. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 35.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.83%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.21%EV -7.72%E -5.84%K -24.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.11%EV -3.81%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.69%EV +17.83%E +0.510%K +0.524%G +0.094%6.4%2026-06-28 04:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.15%EV -11.21%E -8.83%K -41.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.19%EV -7.81%E -2.27%K -3.19%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.66%EV +14.47%E +0.425%K +0.438%G +0.063%10.7%2026-06-28 03:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.71%EV -6.32%E -4.71%K -18.58%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.42%EV -13.43%E -4.14%K -5.99%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.88%EV +7.73%E +0.242%K +0.249%G +0.019%8.6%2026-06-28 03:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.92%EV -11.91%E -9.45%K -45.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.15%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.79%EV +7.73%E +0.242%K +0.249%G +0.019%11.9%2026-06-28 04:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.47%EV -10.51%E -8.21%K -37.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.53%EV -9.15%E -2.69%K -3.81%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.01%EV +0.999%E +0.033%K +0.034%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-28 03:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.66%EV -9.11%E -7.01%K -30.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -13.16%E -4.05%K -5.85%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.88%EV -22.57%E -0.981%K -1.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-06-28 03:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 69.08%EV -11.91%E -9.45%K -45.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.78%EV -13.16%E -4.05%K -5.85%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.14%EV -29.30%E -1.40%K -1.47%G +0.000%14.9%2026-06-28 03:58
Betsson🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.52%E -2.55%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -3.81%E -1.06%K -1.46%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -39.40%E -2.19%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-28 03:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73%1.1%2026-06-28 03:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%4.3%2026-06-28 03:59
Pinnacle🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.43%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.57%4.4%2026-06-28 03:59
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%4.8%2026-06-28 04:00
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-06-28 03:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-06-28 04:00
PlayUp🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%4.9%2026-06-28 04:00
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%5.2%2026-06-28 04:00
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 03:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 03:59
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 03:59
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 03:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 03:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-06-28 03:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-06-28 03:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-28 03:59
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-06-28 03:59
BetRivers🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%5.9%2026-06-28 03:59
Unibet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%5.9%2026-06-28 03:59
Grosvenor🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%6.4%2026-06-28 03:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%6.8%2026-06-28 03:59