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Canberra Raiders v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 05:00 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 34–24 South Sydney Rabbitohs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 49.16%2.03fair odd
EV -6.60%
Edge -3.47%
Kelly -7.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.46%49.48%49.16%50.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.851.841.9054.64%54.15%54.35%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (Visit)

Prediction 46.35%2.16fair odd
EV -4.97%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.00%46.29%46.35%47.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.951.952.0554.95%51.17%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.48%22.30fair odd
EV +48.00%
Edge +1.45%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.720%

assuming max odds 33.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.79%4.23%4.48%5.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0020.6720.0033.005.56%4.84%5.00%3.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 46.94%EV -9.14%E -4.67%K -9.53%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.79%EV +48.00%E +1.45%K +1.50%G +0.720%8.7%2026-07-18 04:49
LeoVegas1.90I 52.63%NM 48.67%EV -6.60%E -3.47%K -7.33%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.70%EV -8.22%E -4.15%K -8.39%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.62%EV -10.31%E -0.515%K -0.542%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-17 22:39
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.48%EV -9.61%E -4.93%K -10.11%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%EV -10.31%E -0.515%K -0.542%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-17 14:04
Winamax (DE)1.84I 54.35%NM 49.01%EV -9.54%E -5.19%K -11.36%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.48%EV -10.07%E -5.19%K -10.71%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -10.31%E -0.515%K -0.542%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-17 22:39
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.77%EV -9.54%E -5.19%K -11.36%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.74%EV -11.00%E -5.73%K -11.96%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.49%EV -10.31%E -0.515%K -0.542%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-17 22:39
Unibet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.79%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.51%EV -11.00%E -5.73%K -11.96%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.70%EV -14.79%E -0.778%K -0.822%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-17 22:39
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.00%EV -4.97%E -2.43%K -4.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -19.27%E -1.07%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 04:50
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 49.87%EV -9.05%E -4.89%K -10.65%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.00%EV -4.97%E -2.43%K -4.74%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.13%EV -19.27%E -1.07%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-18 04:50
NetBet (FR)1.83I 54.64%NM 47.46%EV -10.04%E -5.48%K -12.09%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.72%EV -15.63%E -8.59%K -19.07%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.82%EV -19.27%E -1.07%K -1.13%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-18 04:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-07-18 04:55
Pinnacle1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%3.9%2026-07-18 04:50
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%4.2%2026-07-18 04:25
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-07-18 01:45
Neds1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%5.0%2026-07-18 04:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%5.0%2026-07-18 04:30
Betr (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-07-18 04:45
Bet Right1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-07-18 04:45
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-07-18 04:50
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-07-18 02:30
Dabble (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%5.3%2026-07-15 23:35
Casumo1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-07-18 02:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-07-18 02:20
Unibet (SE)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-07-18 02:20
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-07-18 02:20
TABtouch1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-07-18 04:25
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%5.8%2026-07-18 02:20
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%6.4%2026-07-18 02:20
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%6.4%2026-07-18 02:20
PointsBet (AU)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%6.7%2026-07-18 04:55