Language:English
Canberra Raiders v Penrith Panthers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Canberra Raiders (Local)
assuming max odds 3.60
Penrith Panthers (Visit)
assuming max odds 1.40
Draw
assuming max odds 31.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 26.82%; Penrith Panthers (Visit): 69.12%; Draw: 4.06%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.80%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.02%EV -8.28%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.00%EV -8.76%E -6.63%K -27.37%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 2.98%EV +25.80%E +0.832%K +0.860%G +0.222% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 00:09 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.39%EV -11.50%E -3.48%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.00%EV -9.45%E -7.21%K -30.48%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.62%EV +1.45%E +0.058%K +0.060%G +0.001% | 10.6% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.24%EV -11.50%E -3.48%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 69.83%EV -14.29%E -11.52%K -59.53%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 3.94%EV -10.73%E -0.488%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-06 23:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.58%EV -19.54%E -6.51%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 67.52%EV -12.21%E -9.62%K -45.24%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 3.90%EV -10.73%E -0.488%K -0.511%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-05-08 09:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -11.50%E -3.48%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.92%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -18.84%E -0.942%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -11.50%E -3.48%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.92%EV -3.23%E -2.31%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.68%EV -18.84%E -0.942%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 05:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%EV -3.45%E -0.959%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.44%EV -11.52%E -9.00%K -41.15%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -18.84%E -0.942%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-09 11:09 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58% | 1.3% | 2026-05-10 03:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.44% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.56% | 4.2% | 2026-05-09 22:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 00:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 02:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 02:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 06:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 02:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.46% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 01:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03% | 5.2% | 2026-05-10 01:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 00:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 00:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 00:01 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 00:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 00:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 00:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 00:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27% | 5.5% | 2026-05-09 23:14 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92% | 5.5% | 2026-05-08 04:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 00:01 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 00:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 02:54 |