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Canberra Raiders v North Queensland Cowboys

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 06:05 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 26–12 North Queensland Cowboys

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 54.20%1.85fair odd
EV -5.16%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -6.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.61%54.23%54.43%55.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.651.7561.73%59.78%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Queensland Cowboys (Visit)

Prediction 41.90%2.39fair odd
EV -5.72%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -4.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.93%41.96%41.91%43.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.202.2548.78%45.96%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.90%25.64fair odd
EV +36.53%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.392%

assuming max odds 35.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.63%3.80%3.65%4.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0024.2924.0035.005.00%4.12%4.17%2.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 54.20%; North Queensland Cowboys (Visit): 41.90%; Draw: 3.90%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 25.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 35.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +36.53%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.15%EV -7.87%E -4.63%K -11.24%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.22%EV -10.75%E -5.05%K -9.51%G +0.000%35.00I 2.86%NM 2.63%EV +36.53%E +1.04%K +1.07%G +0.392%8.6%2026-05-31 05:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.60%EV -12.20%E -7.53%K -19.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.46%EV +1.42%E +0.055%K +0.057%G +0.001%11.0%2026-05-31 06:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.00%EV -12.20%E -7.53%K -19.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -9.91%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.56%EV -2.48%E -0.099%K -0.103%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-31 06:01
NetBet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.83%EV -12.20%E -7.53%K -19.68%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.54%EV -14.10%E -6.88%K -13.43%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.63%EV -6.38%E -0.266%K -0.277%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-31 06:01
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.16%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.70%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -21.99%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 03:50
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -5.16%E -2.95%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.70%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -21.99%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-31 03:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.57%EV -10.57%E -6.41%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -7.82%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -21.99%E -1.10%K -1.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-30 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44%0.5%2026-05-31 06:01
BetOnline.ag🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%3.4%2026-05-31 06:00
Pinnacle🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%3.7%2026-05-31 06:01
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-31 03:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-31 05:30
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-31 05:30
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-31 06:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-26 23:20
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-05-31 05:00
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-05-31 06:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%5.2%2026-05-31 05:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-05-31 02:50
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-05-31 02:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-05-31 02:50
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-05-31 02:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-05-31 02:50
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-05-31 02:50
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-05-31 02:50
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.47%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.53%5.4%2026-05-31 03:10
Unibet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%5.8%2026-05-31 02:50
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.62%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.38%5.8%2026-05-31 02:50
Matchbook◎1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%13.7%2026-05-30 15:20