Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights

2026-08-09 04:00 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

61%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 61.01%1.64fair odd

EV -7.88%

Edge -5.22%

Kelly -15.45%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.84%61.01%61.01%61.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.481.481.5168.97%67.57%67.57%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 35.70%2.80fair odd

EV -7.88%

Edge -3.05%

Kelly -4.99%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.70%35.70%35.70%37.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.432.422.5843.48%41.11%41.24%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.29%30.40fair odd

EV -7.88%

Edge -0.281%

Kelly -0.292%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 28.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.29%3.29%3.29%4.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

20.0023.0022.0028.005.00%4.35%4.55%3.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.01%EV -7.88%E -5.22%K -15.45%G +0.000%	2.58I 38.76%NM 35.70%EV -7.88%E -3.05%K -4.99%G +0.000%	28.00I 3.57%NM 3.29%EV -7.88%E -0.281%K -0.292%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-29 05:24
Winamax (DE)	1.50I 66.67%NM 60.05%EV -8.49%E -5.66%K -16.98%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.03%EV -10.74%E -4.30%K -7.16%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 3.92%EV -24.33%E -1.06%K -1.11%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-07-29 05:24
Unibet (FR)	1.46I 68.49%NM 59.02%EV -10.93%E -7.49%K -23.77%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 36.67%EV -16.09%E -6.85%K -11.92%G +0.000%	20.00I 5.00%NM 4.31%EV -34.20%E -1.71%K -1.80%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-07-29 05:34
Winamax (FR)	1.45I 68.97%NM 58.84%EV -11.54%E -7.96%K -25.65%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 37.10%EV -17.88%E -7.77%K -13.75%G +0.000%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.06%EV -30.91%E -1.47%K -1.55%G +0.000%	17.2%	2026-07-29 05:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.13%	2.51I 39.84%NM 37.87%	5.2%	2026-07-29 05:24