The School of Odds

Canberra Raiders v New Zealand Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

1 sportsbook (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -40.98%
Kelly -69.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.00%0.00%0.00%39.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.442.442.442.4441%41%41%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -64.10%
Kelly -178.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.00%0.00%0.00%61.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.561.561.5664%64%64%64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%5.1%2026-07-05 12:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.