The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Canberra Raiders v Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 09:51 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 22–30 Dolphins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 55.06%1.82fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.72%55.00%55.06%56.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.661.641.7562.50%60.14%60.98%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 40.64%2.46fair odd
EV -4.50%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.01%40.50%40.64%41.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.232.202.3548.31%44.87%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 4.30%23.27fair odd
EV +24.62%
Edge +0.849%
Kelly +0.879%
Growth +0.216%

assuming max odds 29.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.17%4.50%4.30%6.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0021.5722.0029.006.67%4.64%4.55%3.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 55.06%; Dolphins (Visit): 40.64%; Draw: 4.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.27. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 29.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.62%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.46%EV -10.25%E -6.29%K -16.26%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.37%EV -7.34%E -3.22%K -5.74%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.17%EV +24.62%E +0.849%K +0.879%G +0.216%8.7%2026-05-21 09:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.90%EV -9.69%E -5.91%K -15.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.88%EV -12.63%E -5.87%K -10.98%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.22%EV +20.32%E +0.726%K +0.753%G +0.153%11.1%2026-05-21 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -10.80%E -6.66%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.68%EV -10.60%E -4.82%K -8.83%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.07%EV -5.46%E -0.248%K -0.260%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-21 09:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.18%EV -11.90%E -7.44%K -19.83%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.88%EV -15.88%E -7.67%K -14.84%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.94%EV -5.46%E -0.248%K -0.260%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-21 09:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.57%EV -9.14%E -5.54%K -14.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -10.60%E -4.82%K -8.83%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.50%EV -14.05%E -0.703%K -0.740%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-21 09:49
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.72%EV -3.64%E -2.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.01%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -35.54%E -2.37%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 09:49
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.72%EV -3.64%E -2.08%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.01%EV -4.50%E -1.91%K -3.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -35.54%E -2.37%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 09:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%3.2%2026-05-21 09:49
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%4.0%2026-05-21 09:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-21 09:50
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-21 09:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%5.0%2026-05-21 09:50
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%5.0%2026-05-21 09:50
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-21 09:50
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-21 09:49
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%5.1%2026-05-21 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%5.1%2026-05-21 09:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%5.1%2026-05-21 09:49
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%5.1%2026-05-21 09:50
LeoVegas🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%5.1%2026-05-21 09:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%5.1%2026-05-21 09:49
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%5.1%2026-05-21 09:50
Bet Right🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%5.1%2026-05-21 09:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-05-21 09:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-05-21 09:50
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-05-21 09:48
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-05-21 09:50
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.93%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.07%7.7%2026-05-21 09:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 51.43%1.80I 55.56%NM 48.57%14.4%2026-05-21 09:50