The School of Odds
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Canberra Raiders v Cronulla Sutherland Sharks

Kickoff: 2026-03-29 05:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 51.02%1.96fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.23%51.02%51.80%52.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.791.771.9059.52%55.90%56.50%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit)

Prediction 43.58%2.29fair odd
EV -6.73%
Edge -3.15%
Kelly -5.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.04%43.58%43.17%45.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.032.002.1452.08%49.15%50.00%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.39%18.54fair odd
EV +13.29%
Edge +0.633%
Kelly +0.664%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.27%5.39%5.04%6.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0018.5318.7521.006.67%5.40%5.33%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 51.02%; Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (Visit): 43.58%; Draw: 5.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.54. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.29%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -12.83%E -6.42%K -12.83%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV +13.29%E +0.633%K +0.664%G +0.088%9.4%2026-03-24 10:39
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.95%EV -6.63%E -3.62%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -12.83%E -6.42%K -12.83%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.35%EV +13.29%E +0.633%K +0.664%G +0.088%9.4%2026-03-24 10:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.92%EV -10.20%E -5.80%K -13.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.81%EV -12.83%E -6.42%K -12.83%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.27%EV +13.29%E +0.633%K +0.664%G +0.088%11.6%2026-03-28 00:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 50.93%EV -14.28%E -8.50%K -21.00%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.57%EV -16.32%E -8.50%K -17.74%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.50%EV +2.50%E +0.132%K +0.139%G +0.003%16.9%2026-03-28 00:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.04%EV -9.69%E -5.47%K -12.58%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.04%EV -6.73%E -3.15%K -5.91%G +0.000%18.75I 5.33%NM 4.91%EV +1.15%E +0.061%K +0.065%G +0.001%8.6%2026-03-28 01:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.80%EV -10.71%E -6.12%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -8.48%E -4.04%K -7.71%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.04%EV -2.90%E -0.161%K -0.170%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-27 01:43
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.15%EV -14.28%E -8.50%K -21.00%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.07%EV -15.01%E -7.70%K -15.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.77%EV -2.90%E -0.161%K -0.170%G +0.000%16.4%2026-03-26 13:23
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.23%EV -3.06%E -1.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -8.48%E -4.04%K -7.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -19.08%E -1.27%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-28 01:30
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.23%EV -3.06%E -1.61%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -8.48%E -4.04%K -7.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -19.08%E -1.27%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-28 01:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%3.2%2026-03-28 02:55
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-03-25 03:09
Bet365 (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-03-25 00:46
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%4.9%2026-03-27 22:00
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%4.9%2026-03-23 12:44
Dabble (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%5.0%2026-03-25 03:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-03-28 00:25
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-03-28 00:25
PlayUp🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%5.2%2026-03-25 05:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%5.3%2026-03-26 01:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%5.4%2026-03-27 11:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%5.4%2026-03-27 11:20
LeoVegas🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%5.4%2026-03-27 11:20
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%5.4%2026-03-27 11:20
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%5.4%2026-03-27 11:20
Casumo🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%5.4%2026-03-27 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%5.4%2026-03-27 11:19
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-25 21:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-25 23:15
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%6.2%2026-03-27 11:19
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%6.2%2026-03-27 11:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%6.5%2026-03-25 03:09