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Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 08:01 UTC

Final: Canberra Raiders 30–34 Brisbane Broncos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Canberra Raiders (Local)

Prediction 70.83%1.41fair odd
EV -6.50%
Edge -4.93%
Kelly -20.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.44%71.23%70.83%73.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3281.97%78.74%78.74%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 25.96%3.85fair odd
EV +3.84%
Edge +0.960%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.53%25.22%25.96%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.593.544.0029.41%27.89%28.25%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.21%31.17fair odd
EV +9.08%
Edge +0.267%
Kelly +0.275%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.71%3.55%3.21%5.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
18.0025.6324.0034.005.56%3.90%4.17%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Canberra Raiders (Local): 70.83%; Brisbane Broncos (Visit): 25.96%; Draw: 3.21%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 31.17. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.08%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.87%EV -13.59%E -11.14%K -61.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV +3.84%E +0.960%K +1.28%G +0.049%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.60%EV -19.80%E -0.792%K -0.825%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-21 06:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 71.99%EV -12.17%E -9.81%K -50.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -3.95%E -1.07%K -1.46%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.88%EV -26.21%E -1.14%K -1.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-21 07:04
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -6.50%E -4.93%K -20.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -6.54%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -42.25%E -2.35%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 07:44
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -6.50%E -4.93%K -20.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -6.54%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.09%EV -42.25%E -2.35%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 07:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.83%EV -7.92%E -6.09%K -26.40%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.46%EV -9.66%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV +9.08%E +0.267%K +0.275%G +0.025%8.6%2026-08-21 06:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.03%EV -10.04%E -7.91%K -37.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -10.44%E -3.03%K -4.26%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV +2.66%E +0.083%K +0.086%G +0.002%10.9%2026-08-21 07:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -13.59%E -11.14%K -61.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.14%EV -10.44%E -3.03%K -4.26%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.77%EV -26.21%E -1.14%K -1.19%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-21 07:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.76%EV -10.04%E -7.91%K -37.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -11.74%E -3.45%K -4.89%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.81%EV +2.66%E +0.083%K +0.086%G +0.002%11.3%2026-08-21 07:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.9%2026-08-21 08:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%4.3%2026-08-21 00:44
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-08-21 07:40
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%4.8%2026-08-21 07:50
Matchbook◎1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%4.9%2026-08-21 07:59
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%5.0%2026-08-21 07:44
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-08-21 06:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-08-21 06:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-21 07:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-21 07:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-21 07:35
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-21 07:35
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-08-21 07:34
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-08-21 07:59
TAB🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-08-21 07:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%5.5%2026-08-21 07:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-08-21 07:19
Grosvenor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-21 07:34
BetRivers🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-21 07:34
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%6.1%2026-08-21 07:34