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Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters

Kickoff: 2026-06-26 10:02 UTC

Final: Brisbane Broncos 18–24 Sydney Roosters

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Broncos (Local)

Prediction 31.88%3.14fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +0.631%
Kelly +0.917%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.41%31.58%32.09%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.833.2037.04%34.44%35.40%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Roosters (Visit)

Prediction 64.61%1.55fair odd
EV -6.96%
Edge -4.83%
Kelly -15.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.59%64.82%64.54%67.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.401.401.4472.99%71.68%71.68%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.51%28.50fair odd
EV +12.29%
Edge +0.384%
Kelly +0.397%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 32.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.82%3.60%3.37%4.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
20.0026.5028.0032.005.00%3.77%3.57%3.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Broncos (Local): 31.88%; Sydney Roosters (Visit): 64.61%; Draw: 3.51%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 28.50. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 32.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.29%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.70%EV -9.14%E -3.21%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.47%EV -10.84%E -7.85%K -28.52%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.82%EV +12.29%E +0.384%K +0.397%G +0.049%10.7%2026-06-26 09:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.11%EV -11.37%E -4.09%K -6.39%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -6.96%E -4.83%K -15.82%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +8.78%E +0.283%K +0.293%G +0.026%8.6%2026-06-26 09:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.03%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.98%EV -10.84%E -7.85%K -28.52%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.99%EV +5.27%E +0.176%K +0.182%G +0.010%11.5%2026-06-26 10:00
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV +2.02%E +0.631%K +0.917%G +0.019%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -9.55%E -6.82%K -23.86%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.36%EV -1.74%E -0.062%K -0.065%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-26 10:00
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV +2.02%E +0.631%K +0.917%G +0.019%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -9.55%E -6.82%K -23.86%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.36%EV -1.74%E -0.062%K -0.065%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-26 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -10.73%E -3.83%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.12%EV -10.19%E -7.33%K -26.13%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.05%EV -22.80%E -1.04%K -1.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-06-26 09:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -13.92%E -5.16%K -8.19%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 63.59%EV -11.48%E -8.38%K -31.04%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.15%EV -26.31%E -1.25%K -1.32%G +0.000%14.8%2026-06-26 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.09%EV -7.55%E -2.60%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.40%EV -9.55%E -6.82%K -23.86%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.51%EV -29.82%E -1.49%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-26 09:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60%0.9%2026-06-26 10:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%3.9%2026-06-26 09:59
SportsBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.88%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.12%5.0%2026-06-26 09:59
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%5.1%2026-06-26 10:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-06-25 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-06-26 09:20
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-06-26 09:19
Dabble (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%5.2%2026-06-26 08:29
TAB🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%5.3%2026-06-26 09:59
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%5.3%2026-06-26 09:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%5.9%2026-06-26 09:20
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-06-24 22:40
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-06-24 22:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-06-24 22:39
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-06-26 04:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-06-24 22:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-06-24 22:39
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%6.0%2026-06-24 22:39
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%6.5%2026-06-26 04:00
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%7.0%2026-06-26 03:59
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%7.4%2026-06-26 09:59