The School of Odds
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Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 04:00 UTC

Final: Brisbane Broncos 26–30 St George Illawarra Dragons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Broncos (Local)

Prediction 83.04%1.20fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -16.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.04%82.82%83.03%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.101.081.1795.24%90.67%92.59%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit)

Prediction 14.20%7.04fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -0.612%
Kelly -0.718%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.36%14.45%14.06%15.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.316.256.7516.67%15.84%16.00%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 2.75%36.33fair odd
EV +12.86%
Edge +0.314%
Kelly +0.322%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 41.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.25%2.73%2.91%3.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
30.0033.8630.0041.003.33%2.95%3.33%2.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Broncos (Local): 83.04%; St George Illawarra Dragons (Visit): 14.20%; Draw: 2.75%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 36.33. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 41.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.86%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.01%EV -7.82%E -7.05%K -71.10%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.74%EV -11.23%E -1.80%K -2.14%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.25%EV +12.86%E +0.314%K +0.322%G +0.041%8.5%2026-05-31 01:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.27%EV -11.14%E -10.41%K -159.18%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.36%EV -4.13%E -0.612%K -0.718%G +0.000%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.37%EV +4.61%E +0.121%K +0.124%G +0.006%10.9%2026-05-31 03:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.84%EV -11.14%E -10.41%K -159.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.80%EV -7.68%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.36%EV +4.61%E +0.121%K +0.124%G +0.006%11.5%2026-05-31 03:11
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.84%E -2.43%K -16.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -14.78%E -2.46%K -2.96%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV -17.42%E -0.581%K -0.601%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 03:40
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.84%E -2.43%K -16.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -14.78%E -2.46%K -2.96%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.16%EV -17.42%E -0.581%K -0.601%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-31 03:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.18%EV -10.31%E -9.55%K -128.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.82%EV -7.68%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.99%EV -17.42%E -0.581%K -0.601%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-25 13:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 83.03%EV -12.80%E -12.19%K -256.08%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.06%EV -11.94%E -1.93%K -2.30%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 2.91%EV -17.42%E -0.581%K -0.601%G +0.000%14.7%2026-05-31 03:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.53%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.47%4.1%2026-05-30 23:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%4.5%2026-05-31 03:50
SportsBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%4.7%2026-05-31 03:40
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%4.7%2026-05-24 00:48
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%4.7%2026-05-24 00:49
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%5.2%2026-05-31 03:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%5.2%2026-05-30 00:29
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%5.2%2026-05-31 03:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%5.3%2026-05-29 03:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%5.3%2026-05-29 03:29
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%5.3%2026-05-29 03:29
TABtouch🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%5.3%2026-05-29 03:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%5.3%2026-05-29 03:29
Casumo🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%5.3%2026-05-29 03:29
Grosvenor🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%5.3%2026-05-29 03:29
TAB🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%5.5%2026-05-30 01:28
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%5.5%2026-05-31 01:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%5.5%2026-05-30 23:10
BetRivers🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%5.7%2026-05-30 02:00
Unibet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%5.7%2026-05-30 02:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%6.3%2026-05-26 11:49