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Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brisbane Broncos (Local)
assuming max odds 1.55
Newcastle Knights (Visit)
assuming max odds 2.90
Draw
assuming max odds 31.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Broncos (Local): 60.81%; Newcastle Knights (Visit): 35.16%; Draw: 4.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.04%.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.19%EV -6.96%E -4.55%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 31.00I 3.23%NM 2.97%EV +25.04%E +0.808%K +0.835%G +0.209% | 8.6% | 2026-08-01 08:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.56%EV -9.39%E -6.30%K -19.17%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.34%EV +8.91%E +0.330%K +0.343%G +0.031% | 10.8% | 2026-08-01 09:34 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.67%EV -8.78%E -5.86%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -10.35%E -4.06%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.64%EV +0.838%E +0.034%K +0.035%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-29 06:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.42%EV -14.26%E -10.11%K -34.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.06%EV -11.26%E -0.512%K -0.536%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-01 09:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.59%EV -11.82%E -8.15%K -26.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.80%EV +1.95%E +0.673%K +1.03%G +0.020% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.61%EV -19.33%E -0.966%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-01 09:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.16%EV -14.26%E -10.11%K -34.77%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -3.32%E -1.21%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.45%EV -19.33%E -0.966%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-01 09:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.85%EV -13.04%E -9.12%K -30.33%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.80%EV -12.11%E -4.84%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.35%EV -19.33%E -0.966%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-08-01 09:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.23%EV -5.74%E -3.70%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.58%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV -27.40%E -1.52%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-01 09:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.23%EV -5.74%E -3.70%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.58%EV -5.08%E -1.88%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.19%EV -27.40%E -1.52%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-01 09:29 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 0.6% | 2026-08-01 09:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 09:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 02:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 02:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 02:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 02:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12% | 4.9% | 2026-08-01 02:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 01:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 08:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 09:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 09:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 04:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 04:04 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 03:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 02:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.85% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.15% | 5.7% | 2026-08-01 02:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.62% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.38% | 5.8% | 2026-07-31 13:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04% | 5.9% | 2026-07-25 07:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13% | 7.0% | 2026-08-01 02:04 |
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