The School of Odds

Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights

2026-08-01 09:35 UTC — NRL

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Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Brisbane Broncos (Local)

Prediction 55.50%1.80fair odd
EV -5.66%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -8.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.54%55.50%55.50%56.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.631.631.7064%61%62%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Newcastle Knights (Visit)

Prediction 40.16%2.49fair odd
EV -7.63%
Edge -3.32%
Kelly -5.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.01%40.16%40.16%41.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.252.3049%45%44%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 4.34%23.01fair odd
EV +12.97%
Edge +0.499%
Kelly +0.519%
Growth +0.067%

assuming max odds 26.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.46%4.34%4.34%5.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
18.0022.1722.5026.006%5%4%4%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.45%EV -9.54%E -5.85%K -15.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.01%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.54%EV +12.97%E +0.499%K +0.519%G +0.067%8.7%2026-07-22 04:40
Winamax (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.60%EV -10.10%E -6.23%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -11.65%E -5.30%K -9.71%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.46%EV +12.97%E +0.499%K +0.519%G +0.067%11.0%2026-07-22 04:40
Winamax (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 54.68%EV -13.43%E -8.61%K -23.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.61%EV -17.67%E -8.62%K -16.83%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.71%EV -0.065%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%17.2%2026-07-22 04:40
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 54.98%EV -12.87%E -8.20%K -22.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.10%EV -15.67%E -7.46%K -14.24%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 3.92%EV -4.41%E -0.200%K -0.210%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-22 04:40
Betsson1.70I 58.82%NM 54.54%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -21.79%E -1.21%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 05:25
NordicBet1.70I 58.82%NM 54.54%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.31%EV -7.63%E -3.32%K -5.87%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.15%EV -21.79%E -1.21%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 05:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%5.0%2026-07-22 04:40