Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Broncos v New Zealand Warriors

2026-08-15 09:35 UTC — NRL

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

37%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Broncos (Local)

Prediction 37.48%2.67fair odd

EV -7.80%

Edge -3.17%

Kelly -5.34%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.01%37.48%37.48%37.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.382.382.4643.48%42.06%42.11%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 59.10%1.69fair odd

EV -7.80%

Edge -5.00%

Kelly -13.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.09%59.10%59.10%59.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.471.511.511.5668.03%66.12%66.23%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 3.41%29.28fair odd

EV -7.80%

Edge -0.289%

Kelly -0.300%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 27.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

3.41%3.41%3.41%4.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

19.0021.7520.5027.005.26%4.60%4.88%3.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Brisbane Broncos (Local): 37.48%; New Zealand Warriors (Visit): 59.10%; Draw: 3.41%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.28. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 27.00, with an expected value of -7.80%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 37.48%EV -7.80%E -3.17%K -5.34%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 59.10%EV -7.80%E -5.00%K -13.92%G +0.000%	27.00I 3.70%NM 3.41%EV -7.80%E -0.289%K -0.300%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-08-06 06:54
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.01%EV -8.17%E -3.34%K -5.64%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 58.87%EV -8.98%E -5.83%K -16.63%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.12%EV -24.87%E -1.13%K -1.18%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-08-06 07:35
Unibet (FR)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 37.38%EV -13.79%E -6.00%K -10.61%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 58.09%EV -12.53%E -8.46%K -26.10%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.53%EV -35.12%E -1.85%K -1.95%G +0.000%	16.3%	2026-08-06 07:35
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 37.23%EV -13.79%E -6.00%K -10.61%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 58.26%EV -13.12%E -8.92%K -27.91%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 4.51%EV -35.12%E -1.85%K -1.95%G +0.000%	16.8%	2026-08-06 07:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
SportsBet🎯	2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%	5.1%	2026-08-06 01:39