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Umar Nurmagomedov v Song Yadong

2026-08-29 20:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Umar Nurmagomedov (Local)

Prediction 77.48%1.29fair odd
EV -0.055%
Edge -0.043%
Kelly -0.190%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.62%77.17%77.36%79.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2984.75%82.03%81.97%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Song Yadong (Visit)

Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV +5.86%
Edge +1.25%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.093%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.07%22.83%22.64%26.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.244.394.7027.78%23.61%22.78%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -8.58%E -7.27%K -47.65%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV +5.86%E +1.25%K +1.58%G +0.093%6.0%2026-07-21 13:00
DraftKings1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -6.25%E -5.17%K -29.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV +3.61%E +0.784%K +1.00%G +0.036%4.4%2026-07-08 23:14
BetOnline.ag1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -5.48%E -4.49%K -24.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +1.36%E +0.301%K +0.387%G +0.005%4.2%2026-07-28 22:57
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.36%E +0.301%K +0.387%G +0.005%5.6%2026-07-21 12:59
FanDuel1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -7.80%E -6.56%K -41.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV +1.36%E +0.301%K +0.387%G +0.005%6.3%2026-07-21 13:00
BetUS1.22I 81.97%NM 78.25%EV -5.48%E -4.49%K -24.90%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.75%EV -1.12%E -0.256%K -0.331%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-28 22:54
Betclic (FR)1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.03%E -5.86%K -35.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.65%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 21:39
Caesars1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.48%E -4.49%K -24.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -9.91%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-23 20:31
NordicBet1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -3.93%E -3.17%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -13.28%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-04 17:20
Betsson1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -3.93%E -3.17%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -13.28%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-04 17:19
Betway1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -0.055%E -0.043%K -0.190%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -18.92%E -5.25%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 07:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.21I 82.64%NM 77.53%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.63%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%6.6%2026-07-28 02:25
Arbitrage (5 combinations) +1.22%Betway 1.29 (78.5%) / SportsBet 4.70 (21.5%)Show all 5 combinations
Umar Nurmagomedov (Local)Song Yadong (Visit)Margin
Betway 1.29 (78.5%)SportsBet 4.70 (21.5%)+1.22%
Betway 1.29 (78.1%)DraftKings 4.60 (21.9%)+0.747%
Betway 1.29 (77.7%)BetOnline.ag 4.50 (22.3%)+0.259%
Betway 1.29 (77.7%)Paddy Power 4.50 (22.3%)+0.259%
Betway 1.29 (77.7%)FanDuel 4.50 (22.3%)+0.259%