The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Nell Ariano v Preston Lagrange

Kickoff: 2026-10-06 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nell Ariano (Local)

Prediction 69.59%1.44fair odd
EV -0.488%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -1.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%69.59%69.59%72.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.351.351.4378.74%74.07%74.07%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Preston Lagrange (Visit)

Prediction 30.41%3.29fair odd
EV +1.88%
Edge +0.561%
Kelly +0.799%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%30.41%30.41%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.863.103.103.3534.97%32.21%32.21%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nell Ariano (Local): 69.59%; Preston Lagrange (Visit): 30.41%. For Preston Lagrange (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.88%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.51%EV -11.62%E -9.15%K -43.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV +1.88%E +0.561%K +0.799%G +0.015%8.6%2026-10-05 14:45
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -0.488%E -0.341%K -1.14%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -13.02%E -4.55%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-05 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.