The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Natalia Silva v Wang Cong

2026-10-04 04:30 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Natalia Silva (Local)

Prediction 67.37%1.48fair odd
EV -0.297%
Edge -0.200%
Kelly -0.618%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.42%67.27%68.04%69.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.391.381.4878.74%72.16%72.46%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wang Cong (Visit)

Prediction 32.63%3.06fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.375%
Kelly +0.553%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.80%32.73%31.96%34.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.682.973.053.1037.31%33.66%32.79%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Natalia Silva (Local): 67.37%; Wang Cong (Visit): 32.63%. For Wang Cong (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.10, producing a positive expected value of +1.16%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +1.16%E +0.375%K +0.553%G +0.006%4.7%2026-09-07 15:10
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.69%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-05 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:35
Unibet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:34
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:35
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:35
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:33
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:35
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -0.470%E -0.154%K -0.229%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 16:45
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.42%EV -7.03%E -5.10%K -18.51%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.58%EV -2.43%E -0.812%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 10:40
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -5.69%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -2.75%E -0.924%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-07 10:45
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.69%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 10:44
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.69%E -4.06%K -14.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -6.02%E -2.09%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 10:43
BetOnline.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -0.297%E -0.200%K -0.618%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -8.63%E -3.08%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 00:35
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 68.41%EV -14.44%E -11.37%K -53.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.59%EV -10.26%E -3.73%K -5.86%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-06 16:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -5.01%E -3.55%K -12.23%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -12.54%E -4.68%K -7.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 02:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 73.26%2.74I 36.50%NM 26.74%36.5%2026-09-07 10:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.42%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.72%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.85%6.1%2026-09-07 11:00
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.17%BetOnline.ag 1.48 (67.7%) / Hard Rock Bet 3.10 (32.3%)Show details
Natalia Silva (Local)Wang Cong (Visit)Margin
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.48 (67.7%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 3.10 (32.3%)+0.175%