La scuola delle quote

Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson

2026-08-16 03:00 UTC — MMA

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31 bookmaker (14 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Mackenzie Dern (Casa)

Previsione 67.57%1.48quota equa
EV +2.04%
Vantaggio +1.35%
Kelly +3.99%
Crescita +0.081%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.51

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
62.50%66.99%67.73%68.89%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.341.421.421.5174.63%70.58%70.42%66.23%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Gillian Robertson (Trasferta)

Previsione 32.43%3.08quota equa
EV +0.523%
Vantaggio +0.169%
Kelly +0.249%
Crescita +0.001%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.10

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
31.11%33.01%32.27%37.50%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.452.842.883.1040.82%35.19%34.72%32.26%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

1 bookmaker offre un numero diverso di opzioni per questo mercato (3 esiti rispetto al formato 2 esiti usato nell’analisi). La disparità impone cautela nell’interpretare i risultati.

Quote dei bookmaker (31 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasa ▼TrasfertaMargineAggiornamento
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV +2.04%E +1.35%K +3.99%G +0.081%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -14.39%E -5.45%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 22:20
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV +1.36%E +0.907%K +2.72%G +0.037%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -15.04%E -5.74%K -9.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-30 02:49
NordicBet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -0.667%E -0.454%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -20.55%E -8.39%K -14.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:44
Betsson1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -0.667%E -0.454%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -20.55%E -8.39%K -14.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:45
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -2.02%E -1.39%K -4.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -12.45%E -4.61%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-02 19:45
Bet Right1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.69%E -1.87%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.20%E -3.29%K -5.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 00:30
FanDuel1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -2.69%E -1.87%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -11.80%E -4.34%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:50
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -2.69%E -1.87%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -11.80%E -4.34%K -6.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:49
Caesars1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.72%E -0.907%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 05:17
LiveScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
TABtouch1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Virgin Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Unibet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
betPARX1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
Bally Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
BetRivers1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -6.61%E -2.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 14:15
Bovada1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -1.10%E -0.360%K -0.536%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-26 05:02
Coolbet1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.72%E -0.907%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-22 09:30
BetOnline.ag1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV +0.523%E +0.169%K +0.249%G +0.001%3.7%2026-07-26 04:59
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -0.450%E -0.146%K -0.217%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-20 17:10
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.72%E -0.907%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 00:03
PointsBet (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.72%E -0.907%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-26 05:04
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.34%E -1.47%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-26 05:04
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.14%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -7.26%E -2.54%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-13 00:14
Betr (AU)1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -6.07%E -4.37%K -15.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.34%E -1.47%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 05:04
Unibet (UK)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -5.96%E -2.06%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 05:00
Betclic (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.30%EV -7.42%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.70%EV -8.56%E -3.03%K -4.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-25 21:44
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -7.58%E -2.66%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-22 16:09
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.50%EV -12.45%E -4.61%K -7.32%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-20 11:05
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 66.83%EV -9.45%E -7.05%K -27.80%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.17%EV -12.45%E -4.61%K -7.32%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-26 04:59
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Altri bookmaker — esclusi dall’analisi (1)

Questi bookmaker offrono un numero diverso di opzioni e sono esclusi dall’analisi. Le loro quote sono mostrate solo come riferimento: le regole di regolamento possono differire e comportare ulteriore incertezza.

BookmakerOpzione 1Opzione 2Opzione 3Margine ▲Aggiornamento
1xBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.28%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.85%6.4%2026-07-13 00:14
Arbitraggio (10 combinazioni) +1.54%DraftKings 1.51 (67.2%) / BetOnline.ag 3.10 (32.8%)Mostra tutte le 10 combinazioni
Mackenzie Dern (Casa)Gillian Robertson (Trasferta)Margine
DraftKings 1.51 (67.2%)BetOnline.ag 3.10 (32.8%)+1.54%
DraftKings 1.51 (67.0%)Pinnacle 3.07 (33.0%)+1.22%
Paddy Power 1.50 (67.4%)BetOnline.ag 3.10 (32.6%)+1.09%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.9%)Bovada 3.05 (33.1%)+0.998%
Paddy Power 1.50 (67.2%)Pinnacle 3.07 (32.8%)+0.766%
Paddy Power 1.50 (67.0%)Bovada 3.05 (33.0%)+0.549%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%)Caesars 3.00 (33.5%)+0.443%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%)Coolbet 3.00 (33.5%)+0.443%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%)TAB 3.00 (33.5%)+0.443%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%)PointsBet (AU) 3.00 (33.5%)+0.443%