The School of Odds

Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson

2026-08-16 03:00 — MMA

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis)

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Option 1: Mackenzie Dern (Local)

1.3772.99%Min
1.4369.70%Mean
1.4270.42%Median
1.5664.10%Max
61.58%1.624Min
67.54%1.481Max
65.30%1.531Mean
65.79%1.520Median
65.67%1.523IQM
65.50%1.527Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.56 under the IQM model: 65.67%

EV +2.44%Edge +1.57%Kelly +4.36%Growth +0.106%

Option 2: Gillian Robertson (Visit)

2.4540.82%Min
2.7536.35%Mean
2.8535.09%Median
2.9533.90%Max
32.46%3.080Min
38.42%2.603Max
34.70%2.882Mean
34.21%2.923Median
34.33%2.913IQM
34.50%2.898Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.95 under the IQM model: 34.33%

EV +1.28%Edge +0.434%Kelly +0.656%Growth +0.008%

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMackenzie Dern (Local) ▼Gillian Robertson (Visit)MarginUpdated
DraftKings1.56I 64.10% NM 61.58%EV +2.44% E +1.57% K +4.36% G +0.106%2.50I 40.00% NM 38.42%EV -14.17% E -5.67% K -9.45% G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-18 12:39
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10% NM 60.90%EV +2.44% E +1.57% K +4.36% G +0.106%2.43I 41.15% NM 39.10%EV -16.57% E -6.82% K -11.59% G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-18 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV +0.472% E +0.308% K +0.890% G +0.004%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -14.17% E -5.67% K -9.45% G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 17:40
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -1.50% E -0.999% K -3.00% G +0.000%2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -10.05% E -3.84% K -6.20% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-30 02:49
NordicBet1.47I 68.03% NM 62.50%EV -3.47% E -2.36% K -7.38% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 37.50%EV -15.89% E -6.48% K -10.96% G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:44
Betsson1.47I 68.03% NM 62.50%EV -3.47% E -2.36% K -7.38% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 37.50%EV -15.89% E -6.48% K -10.96% G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:45
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97% NM 65.06%EV -4.78% E -3.30% K -10.63% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 34.94%EV -7.30% E -2.70% K -4.30% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-02 19:45
Caesars1.45I 68.97% NM 64.63%EV -4.78% E -3.30% K -10.63% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 35.37%EV -9.02% E -3.40% K -5.47% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-02 14:47
FanDuel1.44I 69.44% NM 65.38%EV -5.44% E -3.78% K -12.36% G +0.000%2.72I 36.76% NM 34.62%EV -6.62% E -2.43% K -3.85% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:50
SportsBet1.44I 69.44% NM 65.38%EV -5.44% E -3.78% K -12.36% G +0.000%2.72I 36.76% NM 34.62%EV -6.62% E -2.43% K -3.85% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:49
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93% NM 67.35%EV -6.10% E -4.26% K -14.17% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 32.65%EV +1.28% E +0.434% K +0.656% G +0.008%3.8%2026-07-03 09:39
Pinnacle1.43I 69.93% NM 67.35%EV -6.10% E -4.26% K -14.17% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 32.65%EV +1.28% E +0.434% K +0.656% G +0.008%3.8%2026-07-04 01:25
Coolbet1.43I 69.93% NM 66.97%EV -6.10% E -4.26% K -14.17% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 33.03%EV -0.437% E -0.151% K -0.230% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-04 07:40
LiveScore Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
TABtouch1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Grosvenor1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
Virgin Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Unibet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
betPARX1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
Bally Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -1.12% E -0.390% K -0.598% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
TAB1.42I 70.42% NM 66.74%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.26%EV -2.15% E -0.756% K -1.16% G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-02 17:51
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.19%EV -6.75% E -4.75% K -16.08% G +0.000%2.78I 35.97% NM 33.81%EV -4.56% E -1.64% K -2.56% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 01:39
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92% NM 63.47%EV -7.41% E -5.25% K -18.07% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 36.53%EV -15.89% E -6.48% K -10.96% G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-03 09:39
Betclic (FR)1.37I 72.99% NM 67.54%EV -10.04% E -7.32% K -27.12% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 32.46%EV -2.15% E -0.756% K -1.16% G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-03 13:00
Unibet (FR)1.37I 72.99% NM 65.05%EV -10.04% E -7.32% K -27.12% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 34.95%EV -12.45% E -4.88% K -8.03% G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-03 09:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.46I 68.49%2.87I 34.84%33.00I 3.03%6.4%2026-07-04 01:45
Arbitrage (12 combinations)+2.04%DraftKings 1.56 (65.4%) / BetOnline.ag 2.95 (34.6%)Show all 12 combinations
Mackenzie Dern (Local)Gillian Robertson (Visit)Margin
DraftKings 1.56 (65.4%)BetOnline.ag 2.95 (34.6%)+2.04%
DraftKings 1.56 (65.4%)Pinnacle 2.95 (34.6%)+2.04%
LeoVegas 1.56 (65.4%)BetOnline.ag 2.95 (34.6%)+2.04%
LeoVegas 1.56 (65.4%)Pinnacle 2.95 (34.6%)+2.04%
DraftKings 1.56 (65.0%)Coolbet 2.90 (35.0%)+1.43%
LeoVegas 1.56 (65.0%)Coolbet 2.90 (35.0%)+1.43%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)LiveScore Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)TABtouch 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)Grosvenor 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)Virgin Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)Unibet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)betPARX 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)Bally Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.9%)ATG (SE) 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)LiveScore Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)TABtouch 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Grosvenor 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Virgin Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Unibet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)betPARX 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Bally Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)ATG (SE) 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.6%)TAB 2.85 (35.4%)+0.816%
DraftKings 1.56 (64.6%)Betclic (FR) 2.85 (35.4%)+0.816%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.6%)TAB 2.85 (35.4%)+0.816%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.6%)Betclic (FR) 2.85 (35.4%)+0.816%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.53 (65.8%)BetOnline.ag 2.95 (34.2%)+0.748%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.53 (65.8%)Pinnacle 2.95 (34.2%)+0.748%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.53 (65.5%)Coolbet 2.90 (34.5%)+0.158%