The School of Odds

Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson

2026-08-16 03:00 UTC — MMA

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Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mackenzie Dern (Local)

Prediction 66.76%1.50fair odd
EV +0.806%
Edge +0.533%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%66.43%67.02%68.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.421.5174%70%70%66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Gillian Robertson (Visit)

Prediction 33.24%3.01fair odd
EV +2.05%
Edge +0.668%
Kelly +0.991%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.32%33.57%32.98%37.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.802.853.0741%36%35%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -6.54%E -4.67%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV +2.05%E +0.668%K +0.991%G +0.020%4.0%2026-07-20 17:10
Coolbet1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -5.87%E -4.16%K -14.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -0.276%E -0.092%K -0.138%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-22 09:30
TAB1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.54%E -4.67%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.276%E -0.092%K -0.138%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-06 00:03
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -4.54%E -3.17%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -1.94%E -0.657%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-06 18:45
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -3.60%E -1.24%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-14 01:39
LiveScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
TABtouch1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Virgin Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Unibet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
betPARX1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
Bally Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
BetRivers1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -4.26%E -1.48%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-10 14:15
Marathon Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.14%EV -6.54%E -4.67%K -16.34%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.86%EV -4.93%E -1.72%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-13 00:14
Betr (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -5.87%E -4.16%K -14.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -5.26%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-14 01:39
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.54%E -4.67%K -16.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.26%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-14 01:39
Winamax (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -9.21%E -6.77%K -25.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -5.26%E -1.85%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-22 16:09
Caesars1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.20%E -2.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -6.92%E -2.47%K -3.85%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 15:55
Betclic (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 66.59%EV -7.21%E -5.18%K -18.48%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.41%EV -7.92%E -2.86%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-22 18:49
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.20%E -3.66%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -8.59%E -3.12%K -4.91%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-07 13:24
FanDuel1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -3.87%E -2.69%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -9.58%E -3.52%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:50
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.38%EV -3.87%E -2.69%K -8.79%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.62%EV -9.58%E -3.52%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:49
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -3.20%E -2.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -10.25%E -3.80%K -6.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-02 19:45
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -9.21%E -6.77%K -25.58%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.50%EV -10.25%E -3.80%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-20 11:05
DraftKings1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV +0.806%E +0.533%K +1.58%G +0.013%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -12.24%E -4.64%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV +0.138%E +0.092%K +0.276%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -12.58%E -4.78%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 15:20
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV +0.138%E +0.092%K +0.276%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -12.91%E -4.93%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-30 02:49
Unibet (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 65.05%EV -8.54%E -6.23%K -23.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.95%EV -15.23%E -5.97%K -9.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-06 18:45
NordicBet1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -1.86%E -1.27%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -18.56%E -7.57%K -12.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:44
Betsson1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -1.86%E -1.27%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -18.56%E -7.57%K -12.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.28%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.85%6.4%2026-07-13 00:14
Arbitrage (5 combinations) +1.22%DraftKings 1.51 (67.0%) / Pinnacle 3.07 (33.0%)Show all 5 combinations
Mackenzie Dern (Local)Gillian Robertson (Visit)Margin
DraftKings 1.51 (67.0%)Pinnacle 3.07 (33.0%)+1.22%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.50 (67.2%)Pinnacle 3.07 (32.8%)+0.766%
Paddy Power 1.50 (67.2%)Pinnacle 3.07 (32.8%)+0.766%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%)Coolbet 3.00 (33.5%)+0.443%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%)TAB 3.00 (33.5%)+0.443%