Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson

2026-08-16 02:45 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mackenzie Dern (Local)

Prediction 64.77%1.54fair odd
EV -0.910%
Edge -0.594%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%64.96%64.75%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.471.5371.43%68.32%68.03%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gillian Robertson (Visit)

Prediction 35.23%2.84fair odd
EV +5.70%
Edge +1.90%
Kelly +2.85%
Growth +0.163%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.97%35.04%35.25%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.703.0040.00%36.97%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Mackenzie Dern (Local): 64.77%; Gillian Robertson (Visit): 35.23%. For Gillian Robertson (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.00, producing a positive expected value of +5.70%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -8.68%E -6.16%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV +5.70%E +1.90%K +2.85%G +0.163%4.3%2026-08-14 11:24
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -8.68%E -6.16%K -21.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV +5.70%E +1.90%K +2.85%G +0.163%4.3%2026-08-14 11:24
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -7.39%E -5.17%K -17.18%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +3.94%E +1.34%K +2.02%G +0.080%3.8%2026-08-10 19:19
Caesars🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.34%E -0.479%K -0.746%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-14 17:30
TAB🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.39%E -5.17%K -17.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.34%E -0.479%K -0.746%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 23:45
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%EV -3.46%E -1.26%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-14 17:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -7.39%E -5.17%K -17.18%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -3.46%E -1.26%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-12 18:44
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV -3.81%E -1.40%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-14 17:49
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-14 15:10
BetAnything🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-14 17:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 18:29
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-14 15:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:29
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:30
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:29
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:26
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:29
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 15:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-12 11:49
Fliff🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 18:29
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -5.57%E -2.08%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 15:24
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.58%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.42%EV -5.57%E -2.08%K -3.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 15:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.53%EV -8.68%E -6.16%K -21.17%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.47%EV -5.57%E -2.08%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-11 19:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -0.910%E -0.594%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-14 15:08
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-13 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.15%E -2.80%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-13 15:00
888sport🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.80%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 16:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.44%E -3.73%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.68%E -2.93%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-14 15:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.91%EV -6.74%E -4.68%K -15.31%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 15:14
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.10%EV -9.33%E -6.66%K -23.32%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -11.91%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-14 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.53I 65.36%NM 65.31%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.69%0.1%2026-08-14 17:29
Novig1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-08-14 15:39
ProphetX1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-08-14 18:10
Kalshi1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-08-14 02:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.1%2026-08-14 19:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.1%2026-08-14 19:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.1%2026-08-14 17:50
Matchbook1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%3.6%2026-08-14 17:24

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.41%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.72%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87%7.1%2026-08-12 18:49
Arbitrage (3 combinations) +1.32%BetOnline.ag 1.53 (66.2%) / NordicBet 3.00 (33.8%)Show all 3 combinations
Mackenzie Dern (Local)Gillian Robertson (Visit)Margin
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.53 (66.2%)NordicBet🎯 3.00 (33.8%)+1.32%
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.53 (66.2%)Betsson🎯 3.00 (33.8%)+1.32%
BetOnline.ag🎯 1.53 (65.8%)Coolbet🎯 2.95 (34.2%)+0.748%

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