The School of Odds

Mackenzie Dern v Gillian Robertson

2026-08-16 03:00 — MMA

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Mackenzie Dern (Local)

Prediction 65.60%1.52fair odd
EV -0.950%
Edge -0.629%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%65.47%65.95%68.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.371.431.421.51MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
62.50%1.600Min
68.18%1.467Max
65.47%1.527Mean
65.95%1.516Median
65.60%1.524IQM
65.74%1.521Margin-weighted

Gillian Robertson (Visit)

Prediction 34.40%2.91fair odd
EV +3.21%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%34.53%34.05%37.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.762.783.00MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
31.82%3.143Min
37.50%2.667Max
34.53%2.896Mean
34.05%2.937Median
34.40%2.907IQM
34.26%2.919Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

BookmakerMackenzie Dern (Local)Gillian Robertson (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
TAB1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -8.17% E -5.83% K -20.41% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV +3.21% E +1.07% K +1.61% G +0.052%4.8%2026-07-06 00:03
Pinnacle1.42I 70.42% NM 67.73%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.98I 33.56% NM 32.27%EV +2.52% E +0.847% K +1.27% G +0.032%4.0%2026-07-06 05:45
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93% NM 67.35%EV -6.20% E -4.33% K -14.41% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 32.65%EV +1.49% E +0.506% K +0.765% G +0.011%3.8%2026-07-06 18:45
Coolbet1.43I 69.93% NM 66.97%EV -6.20% E -4.33% K -14.41% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 33.03%EV -0.228% E -0.079% K -0.120% G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-04 07:40
LiveScore Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
TABtouch1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Grosvenor1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
Virgin Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Unibet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
betPARX1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:55
Bally Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
ATG (SE)1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02%EV -0.916% E -0.318% K -0.487% G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-02 10:50
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42% NM 66.19%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.78I 35.97% NM 33.81%EV -4.36% E -1.57% K -2.45% G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-04 01:39
Unibet (UK)1.42I 70.42% NM 65.95%EV -6.85% E -4.83% K -16.32% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 34.05%EV -5.39% E -1.96% K -3.08% G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-07 13:24
Betclic (FR)1.39I 71.94% NM 66.43%EV -8.82% E -6.35% K -22.62% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 33.57%EV -5.39% E -1.96% K -3.08% G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-05 17:04
FanDuel1.44I 69.44% NM 65.38%EV -5.54% E -3.85% K -12.60% G +0.000%2.72I 36.76% NM 34.62%EV -6.42% E -2.36% K -3.73% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:50
SportsBet1.44I 69.44% NM 65.38%EV -5.54% E -3.85% K -12.60% G +0.000%2.72I 36.76% NM 34.62%EV -6.42% E -2.36% K -3.73% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-30 02:49
Hard Rock Bet1.45I 68.97% NM 65.06%EV -4.89% E -3.37% K -10.86% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 34.94%EV -7.11% E -2.63% K -4.18% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-02 19:45
Caesars1.45I 68.97% NM 64.63%EV -4.89% E -3.37% K -10.86% G +0.000%2.65I 37.74% NM 35.37%EV -8.83% E -3.33% K -5.35% G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-02 14:47
DraftKings1.51I 66.23% NM 63.61%EV -0.950% E -0.629% K -1.86% G +0.000%2.64I 37.88% NM 36.39%EV -9.17% E -3.47% K -5.59% G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-07 22:20
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV -1.61% E -1.07% K -3.21% G +0.000%2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -9.86% E -3.76% K -6.09% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-30 02:49
Unibet (FR)1.37I 72.99% NM 65.05%EV -10.13% E -7.40% K -27.39% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 34.95%EV -12.27% E -4.81% K -7.92% G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-06 18:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.53I 65.36% NM 62.03%EV +0.362% E +0.236% K +0.682% G +0.002%2.50I 40.00% NM 37.97%EV -13.99% E -5.60% K -9.33% G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-27 17:40
NordicBet1.47I 68.03% NM 62.50%EV -3.57% E -2.43% K -7.60% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 37.50%EV -15.71% E -6.41% K -10.83% G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:44
Betsson1.47I 68.03% NM 62.50%EV -3.57% E -2.43% K -7.60% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 37.50%EV -15.71% E -6.41% K -10.83% G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-27 13:45
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92% NM 63.47%EV -7.51% E -5.33% K -18.32% G +0.000%2.45I 40.82% NM 36.53%EV -15.71% E -6.41% K -10.83% G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-06 18:50
LeoVegas1.56I 64.10% NM 60.90%EV +2.33% E +1.49% K +4.16% G +0.097%2.43I 41.15% NM 39.10%EV -16.40% E -6.75% K -11.47% G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-18 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.46I 68.49% NM 64.39%2.87I 34.84% NM 32.76%33.00I 3.03% NM 2.85%6.4%2026-07-04 01:45
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.44%DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%) / TAB 3.00 (33.5%)Show all 2 combinations
Mackenzie Dern (Local)Gillian Robertson (Visit)Margin
LeoVegas 1.56 (65.8%)TAB 3.00 (34.2%)+2.63%
LeoVegas 1.56 (65.6%)Pinnacle 2.98 (34.4%)+2.40%
LeoVegas 1.56 (65.4%)BetOnline.ag 2.95 (34.6%)+2.04%
LeoVegas 1.56 (65.0%)Coolbet 2.90 (35.0%)+1.43%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.53 (66.2%)TAB 3.00 (33.8%)+1.32%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)LiveScore Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)TABtouch 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Grosvenor 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Virgin Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Unibet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)betPARX 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)Bally Bet 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
LeoVegas 1.56 (64.9%)ATG (SE) 2.88 (35.1%)+1.19%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.53 (66.1%)Pinnacle 2.98 (33.9%)+1.10%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.53 (65.8%)BetOnline.ag 2.95 (34.2%)+0.748%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.5%)TAB 3.00 (33.5%)+0.443%
DraftKings 1.51 (66.4%)Pinnacle 2.98 (33.6%)+0.218%
Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.53 (65.5%)Coolbet 2.90 (34.5%)+0.158%