默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Francisco Prado v Ismael Bonfim

开赛时间： 2026-10-10 23:04 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

35 家博彩公司 (13 家纳入分析 )

59%

41%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Francisco Prado (主队)

预测 59.20%1.69公平赔率

EV +21.36%

优势 +10.42%

Kelly +20.34%

增长率 +4.35%

假设最高赔率为 2.05

博彩公司预测分布

45.91%59.14%59.34%60.95%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.491.621.622.0567.11%61.65%61.73%48.78%最小值均值中位数最大值

Ismael Bonfim (客队)

预测 40.80%2.45公平赔率

EV -0.042%

优势 -0.017%

Kelly -0.029%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.45

博彩公司预测分布

39.05%40.86%40.66%54.09%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.742.302.302.4557.47%43.47%43.48%40.82%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Francisco Prado (主队)：59.20%；Ismael Bonfim (客队)：40.80%。对于“Francisco Prado (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为1.69。当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.05，对应+21.36%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (35 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
Fliff🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV +21.36%E +10.42%K +20.34%G +4.35%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -29.01%E -16.67%K -39.20%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-10-04 00:30
NordicBet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.13%E -0.680%K -1.69%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-10-10 14:00
Betway🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.13%E -0.680%K -1.69%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.24%E -4.66%K -8.53%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-10 14:00
Pinnacle🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -1.73%E -1.04%K -2.62%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-10-10 23:00
DraftKings🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.32%E -1.41%K -3.57%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-10 23:00
BetUS🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.32%E -1.41%K -3.57%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-10 23:03
Betsson🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -2.32%E -1.41%K -3.57%G +0.000%	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -9.43%E -4.25%K -7.73%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-10-10 14:01
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV -3.50%E -2.15%K -5.56%G +0.000%	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%EV -3.71%E -1.57%K -2.73%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-10-10 22:53
BetAnything🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -3.50%E -2.15%K -5.56%G +0.000%	2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -6.57%E -2.87%K -5.09%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-10 22:55
ReBet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -3.31%E -1.39%K -2.41%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-10 22:15
BetRivers🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
TABtouch🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
Virgin Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
Unibet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
betPARX🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
ATG (SE)🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
Bally Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-10 20:50
Bovada🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.68%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.08%E -0.867%K -1.49%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-10-10 23:02
FanDuel🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.68%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -2.90%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-10 20:30
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.68%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-10-10 22:15
Coolbet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -1.67%E -0.694%K -1.19%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-10 21:10
Bet Right🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:55
888sport🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 22:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-10 20:55
Betr (AU)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-10 20:55
Caesars🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.042%E -0.017%K -0.029%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-10 20:50
BetMGM🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.042%E -0.017%K -0.029%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-10-10 22:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.08%E -0.867%K -1.49%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-10 22:15
TAB🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.08%E -0.867%K -1.49%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-10 21:00
Paddy Power🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-10-10 20:30
Sky Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-10-10 20:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-10-10 20:30
Grosvenor🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 58.50%EV -11.79%E -7.91%K -24.06%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -14.32%E -6.82%K -13.02%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-10-10 20:50

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (9)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
BetOpenly◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08%	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92%	0.2%	2026-10-10 22:57
Matchbook◎	1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08%	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92%	0.2%	2026-10-10 23:00
Kalshi◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05%	2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95%	0.2%	2026-10-10 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%	0.9%	2026-10-10 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%	0.9%	2026-10-10 23:00
Novig◎	1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88%	2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12%	1.0%	2026-10-10 23:01
Polymarket◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53%	2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47%	1.1%	2026-10-10 23:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%	2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%	1.2%	2026-10-10 23:00
ProphetX◎	1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%	2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%	1.9%	2026-10-10 23:00

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
1xBet🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.60%	2.22I 45.05%NM 41.56%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%	8.4%	2026-10-10 22:05