Language:English
Francisco Prado v Ismael Bonfim
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Prado (Local)
Prediction 59.20%1.69fair odd
EV +21.36%
Edge +10.42%
Kelly +20.34%
Growth +4.35%
assuming max odds 2.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%59.14%59.34%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.621.622.0567.11%61.65%61.73%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ismael Bonfim (Visit)
Prediction 40.80%2.45fair odd
EV -0.042%
Edge -0.017%
Kelly -0.029%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%40.86%40.66%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.742.302.302.4557.47%43.47%43.48%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Prado (Local): 59.20%; Ismael Bonfim (Visit): 40.80%. For Francisco Prado (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.36%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV +21.36%E +10.42%K +20.34%G +4.35% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -29.01%E -16.67%K -39.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 00:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.13%E -0.680%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.13%E -0.680%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.24%E -4.66%K -8.53%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.60%EV -1.73%E -1.04%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.40%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.32%E -1.41%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.32%E -1.41%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 23:03 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.36%EV -2.32%E -1.41%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.64%EV -9.43%E -4.25%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.15%EV -3.50%E -2.15%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.85%EV -3.71%E -1.57%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-10 22:53 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -3.50%E -2.15%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -6.57%E -2.87%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 22:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -3.31%E -1.39%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.09%E -2.53%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -2.08%E -0.867%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-10 23:02 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -2.90%E -1.22%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 20:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.68%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -1.67%E -0.694%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-10 21:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 22:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 22:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 20:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.28%E -3.30%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 20:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.042%E -0.017%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.042%E -0.017%K -0.029%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.08%E -0.867%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.08%E -0.867%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 21:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-10 20:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-10 20:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.05%E -4.49%K -12.38%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.20%E -3.65%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-10 20:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 58.50%EV -11.79%E -7.91%K -24.06%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -14.32%E -6.82%K -13.02%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-10-10 20:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92% | 0.2% | 2026-10-10 22:57 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92% | 0.2% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 0.2% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 23:01 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.53% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.47% | 1.1% | 2026-10-10 23:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.2% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54% | 1.9% | 2026-10-10 23:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.60% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.56% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.4% | 2026-10-10 22:05 |