The School of OddsDamian Pinas v Cesar Almeida
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Damian Pinas (Local)
Prediction 67.42%1.48fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.751%
Kelly +2.25%
Growth +0.025%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.59%67.29%67.51%68.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.401.421.421.50MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
63.59%1.573Min
68.23%1.466Max
67.29%1.486Mean
67.51%1.481Median
67.42%1.483IQM
67.35%1.485Margin-weighted
Cesar Almeida (Visit)
Prediction 32.58%3.07fair odd
EV -0.622%
Edge -0.204%
Kelly -0.304%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.77%32.71%32.49%36.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.622.892.933.05MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
31.77%3.148Min
36.41%2.747Max
32.71%3.057Mean
32.49%3.077Median
32.58%3.069IQM
32.65%3.063Margin-weighted
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Damian Pinas (Local) ▼ | Cesar Almeida (Visit) | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.54I 64.94% NM 61.88%EV +3.82% E +2.48% K +7.08% G +0.271% | 2.50I 40.00% NM 38.12%EV -18.54% E -7.42% K -12.36% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-30 14:09 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.50I 66.67% NM 63.68%EV +1.13% E +0.751% K +2.25% G +0.025% | 2.63I 38.02% NM 36.32%EV -14.31% E -5.44% K -8.78% G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-29 23:39 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50I 66.67% NM 63.59%EV +1.13% E +0.751% K +2.25% G +0.025% | 2.62I 38.17% NM 36.41%EV -14.63% E -5.59% K -9.03% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 23:36 |
| SportsBet | 1.46I 68.49% NM 65.07%EV -1.57% E -1.08% K -3.42% G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76% NM 34.93%EV -11.37% E -4.18% K -6.61% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-07 12:30 |
| PlayUp | 1.45I 68.97% NM 65.06%EV -2.25% E -1.55% K -4.99% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 34.94%EV -12.03% E -4.45% K -7.07% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-08 10:30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.90%EV -2.92% E -2.03% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36% NM 33.10%EV -5.18% E -1.78% K -2.71% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-08 21:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.67%EV -2.92% E -2.03% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 33.33%EV -6.16% E -2.14% K -3.28% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 14:15 |
| Betsson | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.67%EV -2.92% E -2.03% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 33.33%EV -6.16% E -2.14% K -3.28% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-07 14:15 |
| Bovada | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.43%EV -2.92% E -2.03% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09% NM 33.57%EV -7.14% E -2.50% K -3.86% G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-08 18:04 |
| BetMGM | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.43%EV -2.92% E -2.03% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09% NM 33.57%EV -7.14% E -2.50% K -3.86% G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-07 12:55 |
| Bet Right | 1.44I 69.44% NM 66.04%EV -2.92% E -2.03% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 33.96%EV -8.77% E -3.13% K -4.87% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-08 21:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.44I 69.44% NM 65.38%EV -2.92% E -2.03% K -6.63% G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76% NM 34.62%EV -11.37% E -4.18% K -6.61% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-07 12:29 |
| Coolbet | 1.43I 69.93% NM 67.72%EV -3.59% E -2.51% K -8.36% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 32.28%EV -2.25% E -0.751% K -1.13% G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-07-08 22:24 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.42I 70.42% NM 68.23%EV -4.27% E -3.01% K -10.16% G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79% NM 31.77%EV -0.622% E -0.204% K -0.304% G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-08 00:55 |
| Caesars | 1.42I 70.42% NM 67.87%EV -4.27% E -3.01% K -10.16% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 32.13%EV -2.25% E -0.751% K -1.13% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-08 19:14 |
| DraftKings | 1.42I 70.42% NM 67.51%EV -4.27% E -3.01% K -10.16% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.49%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-08 19:55 |
| BetAnything | 1.42I 70.42% NM 67.13%EV -4.27% E -3.01% K -10.16% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.87%EV -5.51% E -1.90% K -2.90% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-08 13:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.42I 70.42% NM 67.13%EV -4.27% E -3.01% K -10.16% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.87%EV -5.51% E -1.90% K -2.90% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-07 12:54 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -2.25% E -0.751% K -1.13% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-08 20:10 |
| 888sport | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 20:04 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 20:00 |
| Unibet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 19:55 |
| TABtouch | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 19:55 |
| Grosvenor | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 19:55 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 19:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 20:00 |
| betPARX | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 20:00 |
| Bally Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 19:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -3.88% E -1.32% K -1.99% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-08 20:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -5.51% E -1.90% K -2.90% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-08 00:59 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -5.62% E -4.01% K -14.04% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -5.51% E -1.90% K -2.90% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-08 20:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Damian Pinas (Local) | Cesar Almeida (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.50I 66.67% NM 66.59% | 2.99I 33.44% NM 33.41% | 0.1% | 2026-07-08 04:10 |
| Kalshi | 1.54I 64.94% NM 64.35% | 2.78I 35.97% NM 35.65% | 0.9% | 2026-06-30 05:39 |
| Polymarket | 1.49I 67.11% NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01% NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-07-07 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.48I 67.57% NM 66.52% | 2.94I 34.01% NM 33.48% | 1.6% | 2026-07-08 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.48I 67.57% NM 66.52% | 2.94I 34.01% NM 33.48% | 1.6% | 2026-07-08 21:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.48I 67.57% NM 66.52% | 2.94I 34.01% NM 33.48% | 1.6% | 2026-07-08 21:00 |
| Novig | 1.44I 69.44% NM 68.14% | 3.08I 32.47% NM 31.86% | 1.9% | 2026-07-09 04:35 |
| Matchbook | 1.42I 70.42% NM 66.98% | 2.88I 34.72% NM 33.02% | 5.1% | 2026-07-08 21:05 |
| ProphetX | 1.38I 72.46% NM 67.76% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.24% | 6.9% | 2026-07-08 21:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42I 70.42% NM 64.89% | 2.77I 36.10% NM 33.27% | 50.00I 2.00% NM 1.84% | 8.5% | 2026-07-08 20:10 |
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.55%Paddy Power 1.50 (67.0%) / BetOnline.ag 3.05 (33.0%)Show all 2 combinations
| Damian Pinas (Local) | Cesar Almeida (Visit) | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas 1.54 (66.4%) | BetOnline.ag 3.05 (33.6%) | +2.33% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (66.1%) | Coolbet 3.00 (33.9%) | +1.76% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (66.1%) | Caesars 3.00 (33.9%) | +1.76% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (66.1%) | PointsBet (AU) 3.00 (33.9%) | +1.76% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | DraftKings 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | 888sport 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | LiveScore Bet 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | Unibet 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | TABtouch 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | Grosvenor 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | Virgin Bet 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | ATG (SE) 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | betPARX 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | Bally Bet 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.7%) | Hard Rock Bet 2.95 (34.3%) | +1.18% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.4%) | Pinnacle 2.91 (34.6%) | +0.706% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.3%) | BetAnything 2.90 (34.7%) | +0.586% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.3%) | Ladbrokes (AU) 2.90 (34.7%) | +0.586% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.3%) | Unibet (UK) 2.90 (34.7%) | +0.586% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.3%) | Betr (AU) 2.90 (34.7%) | +0.586% |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 1.50 (67.0%) | BetOnline.ag 3.05 (33.0%) | +0.549% |
| Paddy Power 1.50 (67.0%) | BetOnline.ag 3.05 (33.0%) | +0.549% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.2%) | NordicBet 2.88 (34.8%) | +0.344% |
| LeoVegas 1.54 (65.2%) | Betsson 2.88 (34.8%) | +0.344% |