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Charles Oliveira v Diego Lopes

2026-12-13 04:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charles Oliveira (Local)

Prediction 56.99%1.75fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.83%
Kelly -4.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%57.12%56.94%58.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.631.651.7066.23%61.17%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diego Lopes (Visit)

Prediction 43.01%2.33fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%42.88%43.06%43.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.212.232.2649.02%45.24%44.84%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Charles Oliveira (Local): 56.99%; Diego Lopes (Visit): 43.01%. For Diego Lopes (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.26, with an expected value of -2.81%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.11%E -1.83%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.53%E -2.04%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-11 19:19
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.25%E -2.53%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.67%E -1.64%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.43%EV -5.39%E -3.25%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.55%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-12 08:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:24
BetRivers🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:24
Unibet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:25
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:25
Bally Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.96%E -3.61%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -4.10%E -1.84%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-05 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.53%E -3.98%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.54%E -3.51%K -6.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-13 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.15%EV -6.53%E -3.98%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.85%EV -9.69%E -4.61%K -8.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 03:25
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -2.81%E -1.24%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-19 14:40
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.67%E -4.73%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-14 21:23
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.52%E -6.70%K -18.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 14:39
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -10.52%E -6.70%K -18.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -3.24%E -1.44%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 14:50
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 57.46%EV -13.94%E -9.23%K -27.33%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 42.54%EV -12.27%E -6.01%K -11.80%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-05 13:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%8.6%2026-10-22 18:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.34%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.81%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.85%6.3%2026-10-13 17:38