The School of Odds

Alessandro Costa v Cody Durden

2026-07-11 21:00 — MMA

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Alessandro Costa (Local)

Prediction 68.32%1.46fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -5.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.59%68.50%68.37%71.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.331.401.401.43MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
66.59%1.502Min
71.58%1.397Max
68.50%1.460Mean
68.37%1.463Median
68.32%1.464IQM
68.53%1.459Margin-weighted

Cody Durden (Visit)

Prediction 31.68%3.16fair odd
EV +6.13%
Edge +1.83%
Kelly +2.61%
Growth +0.160%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.42%31.50%31.63%33.41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.852.972.903.35MINMEANMEDIANMAX
All estimators
Consensus probabilities
28.42%3.519Min
33.41%2.993Max
31.50%3.175Mean
31.63%3.161Median
31.68%3.156IQM
31.47%3.177Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

BookmakerAlessandro Costa (Local)Cody Durden (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19% NM 71.58%EV -9.14% E -6.87% K -27.69% G +0.000%3.35I 29.85% NM 28.42%EV +6.13% E +1.83% K +2.61% G +0.160%5.0%2026-07-06 13:09
BetMGM1.36I 73.53% NM 70.50%EV -7.09% E -5.21% K -19.69% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 29.50%EV +2.96% E +0.912% K +1.32% G +0.039%4.3%2026-07-06 13:10
NordicBet1.37I 72.99% NM 70.02%EV -6.40% E -4.67% K -17.31% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.98%EV +1.38% E +0.431% K +0.627% G +0.009%4.2%2026-07-06 14:10
Betsson1.37I 72.99% NM 70.02%EV -6.40% E -4.67% K -17.31% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.98%EV +1.38% E +0.431% K +0.627% G +0.009%4.2%2026-07-06 14:09
Coolbet1.40I 71.43% NM 68.89%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 31.11%EV -1.79% E -0.577% K -0.851% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-07 18:44
SportsBet1.38I 72.46% NM 69.06%EV -5.72% E -4.15% K -15.05% G +0.000%3.08I 32.47% NM 30.94%EV -2.42% E -0.786% K -1.16% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-07 13:34
Bovada1.41I 70.92% NM 68.39%EV -3.67% E -2.60% K -8.95% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 31.61%EV -3.37% E -1.11% K -1.64% G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-08 08:54
Caesars1.40I 71.43% NM 68.54%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%3.05I 32.79% NM 31.46%EV -3.37% E -1.11% K -1.64% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-08 19:04
Pinnacle1.41I 70.92% NM 68.24%EV -3.67% E -2.60% K -8.95% G +0.000%3.03I 33.00% NM 31.76%EV -4.01% E -1.32% K -1.97% G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-08 17:55
BetOnline.ag1.43I 69.93% NM 67.72%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 32.28%EV -4.96% E -1.65% K -2.48% G +0.000%3.3%2026-07-07 18:30
DraftKings1.41I 70.92% NM 68.03%EV -3.67% E -2.60% K -8.95% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.97%EV -4.96% E -1.65% K -2.48% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 18:29
LeoVegas1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -4.96% E -1.65% K -2.48% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-29 17:50
BetAnything1.40I 71.43% NM 68.18%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.82%EV -4.96% E -1.65% K -2.48% G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 13:10
FanDuel1.38I 72.46% NM 68.49%EV -5.72% E -4.15% K -15.05% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 31.51%EV -4.96% E -1.65% K -2.48% G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 16:00
Bet Right1.40I 71.43% NM 67.82%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 32.18%EV -6.54% E -2.22% K -3.35% G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 19:10
PointsBet (AU)1.42I 70.42% NM 67.13%EV -2.99% E -2.10% K -7.11% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.87%EV -8.12% E -2.80% K -4.28% G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 23:25
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -8.12% E -2.80% K -4.28% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-07 18:29
Betr (AU)1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -8.12% E -2.80% K -4.28% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 23:25
PlayUp1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%EV -8.12% E -2.80% K -4.28% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 10:50
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43% NM 67.29%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 32.71%EV -8.76% E -3.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-29 16:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43% NM 67.29%EV -4.35% E -3.11% K -10.88% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 32.71%EV -8.76% E -3.04% K -4.66% G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-29 16:19
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:20
Unibet1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:20
TABtouch1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:19
Grosvenor1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:20
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:19
betPARX1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:20
Bally Bet1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:20
ATG (SE)1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:20
Hard Rock Bet1.43I 69.93% NM 66.59%EV -2.30% E -1.61% K -5.36% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 33.41%EV -9.71% E -3.41% K -5.25% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 23:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerAlessandro Costa (Local)Cody Durden (Visit)Margin ▲Updated
BetOpenly1.45I 68.97% NM 68.95%3.22I 31.06% NM 31.05%0.0%2026-07-08 18:39
Polymarket1.43I 69.93% NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96% NM 30.69%0.9%2026-07-08 13:10
Novig1.44I 69.44% NM 68.76%3.17I 31.55% NM 31.24%1.0%2026-07-09 03:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.42I 70.42% NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77% NM 30.41%1.2%2026-07-09 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42% NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77% NM 30.41%1.2%2026-07-09 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42% NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77% NM 30.41%1.2%2026-07-09 00:15
Matchbook1.40I 71.43% NM 68.04%2.98I 33.56% NM 31.96%5.0%2026-07-08 20:50
ProphetX1.40I 71.43% NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.56%5.9%2026-07-08 17:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.36I 73.53% NM 67.82%3.04I 32.89% NM 30.34%50.00I 2.00% NM 1.84%8.4%2026-07-06 11:44
Arbitrage (10 combinations) +0.22%BetOnline.ag 1.43 (70.1%) / Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)Show all 10 combinations
Alessandro Costa (Local)Cody Durden (Visit)Margin
BetOnline.ag 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
LiveScore Bet 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
Unibet 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
TABtouch 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
Grosvenor 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
Virgin Bet 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
betPARX 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
Bally Bet 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
ATG (SE) 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%
Hard Rock Bet 1.43 (70.1%)Ladbrokes (AU) 3.35 (29.9%)+0.220%