Zoran Milic v Aaron Aby

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

39%

61%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Zoran Milic (Local)

Prediction 39.36%2.54fair odd

EV -3.58%

Edge -1.46%

Kelly -2.47%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.36%39.36%39.36%39.36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.452.452.452.4540.82%40.82%40.82%40.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Aaron Aby (Visit)

Prediction 60.64%1.65fair odd

EV -3.58%

Edge -2.25%

Kelly -6.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.64%60.64%60.64%60.64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.591.591.591.5962.89%62.89%62.89%62.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.58%E -1.46%K -2.47%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.58%E -2.25%K -6.06%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-07-11 11:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.