Language:English
Zachary Reese v Michel Pereira
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zachary Reese (Local)
Prediction 40.47%2.47fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.850%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.24%40.57%40.58%42.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.362.402.4244.84%42.41%41.67%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michel Pereira (Visit)
Prediction 59.53%1.68fair odd
EV +0.007%
Edge +0.004%
Kelly +0.010%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.58%59.43%59.42%60.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.581.6865.36%62.91%63.29%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Reese (Local): 40.47%; Michel Pereira (Visit): 59.53%. For Michel Pereira (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.6799. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.6800, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.007%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -7.72%E -3.39%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV +0.007%E +0.004%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-02-22 01:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.97%E -1.82%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-02-22 01:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.91%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.97%E -1.82%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.91%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.97%E -1.82%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.49%E -1.90%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-22 01:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.89%E -2.08%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -5.29%E -2.26%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-02-22 01:18 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.91%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-22 01:19 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.91%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-21 23:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.91%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-22 01:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.94%E -3.97%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.57%E -2.20%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-20 05:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -4.08%E -1.72%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.16%E -2.58%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-02-22 01:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.91%E -3.01%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.16%E -2.58%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-02-21 08:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -2.06%E -0.850%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.76%E -2.97%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-02-21 23:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -2.46%E -1.02%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -4.76%E -2.97%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-21 22:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.89%E -2.08%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.76%E -2.97%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.89%E -2.08%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.76%E -2.97%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.95%E -3.76%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-22 00:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.95%E -3.76%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-21 23:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -9.75%E -4.37%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -5.95%E -3.76%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-21 19:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.47%EV -9.75%E -4.37%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -5.95%E -3.76%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-02-21 11:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.54%E -4.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 22:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.54%E -4.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-22 00:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.54%E -4.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 04:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.54%E -4.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 04:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.54%E -4.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 04:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.54%E -4.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-02-21 04:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.68%E -1.54%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.54%E -4.17%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-21 09:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.14%E -4.57%K -12.74%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 04:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -2.87%E -1.19%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.73%E -4.99%K -14.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-02-21 23:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -4.89%E -2.08%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -8.92%E -5.83%K -16.84%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.49I 40.16%NM 40.14% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.86% | 0.0% | 2026-02-22 01:13 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-02-22 01:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 0.9% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 0.9% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 0.9% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82% | 1.2% | 2026-02-22 01:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.70% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.43% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-02-21 16:15 |