Language:English
Yousri Belgaroui v Djorden Santos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Yousri Belgaroui (Local)
Prediction 86.30%1.16fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -19.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.27%86.22%86.37%88.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.111.111.1397.09%90.36%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Djorden Santos (Visit)
Prediction 13.70%7.30fair odd
EV +9.57%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.37%
Growth +0.131%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.99%13.78%13.63%15.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.606.766.508.0017.86%14.79%15.38%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yousri Belgaroui (Local): 86.30%; Djorden Santos (Visit): 13.70%. For Djorden Santos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.30. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.57%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -5.93%E -5.44%K -65.88%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +9.57%E +1.20%K +1.37%G +0.131% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 17:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -5.93%E -5.44%K -65.88%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV +9.57%E +1.20%K +1.37%G +0.131% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 17:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -5.07%E -4.61%K -50.66%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +2.73%E +0.363%K +0.419%G +0.011% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 19:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.92%EV -3.34%E -2.98%K -27.84%G +0.000% | 7.44I 13.44%NM 13.08%EV +1.90%E +0.256%K +0.296%G +0.006% | 2.7% | 2026-09-12 19:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.88%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 7.35I 13.61%NM 13.12%EV +0.671%E +0.091%K +0.106%G +0.001% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.64%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.36%EV -1.38%E -0.192%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.48%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.52%EV -2.75%E -0.388%K -0.451%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-12 16:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -4.12%E -0.589%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-12 15:16 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -4.12%E -0.589%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-09 13:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.07%E -4.61%K -50.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.12%E -0.589%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.07%E -4.61%K -50.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.12%E -0.589%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.07%E -4.61%K -50.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.12%E -0.589%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-09 13:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.07%E -4.61%K -50.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -4.12%E -0.589%K -0.687%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-12 16:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV -5.49%E -0.796%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -3.34%E -2.98%K -27.84%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -7.55%E -1.12%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-12 19:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -3.34%E -2.98%K -27.84%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 16:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 16:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 16:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -10.97%E -1.69%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.09%EV -2.48%E -2.19%K -19.06%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.91%EV -11.66%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-08 21:04 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -14.40%E -2.30%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 15:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.60%EV -4.20%E -3.79%K -38.21%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV -16.45%E -2.70%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-12 19:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.34%E -2.98%K -27.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -17.82%E -2.97%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 84.46%EV -11.11%E -10.78%K -370.26%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.54%EV -23.30%E -4.16%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-09-12 19:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.97% | 8.34I 11.99%NM 12.03% | -0.3% | 2026-09-12 18:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.53% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47% | 0.2% | 2026-09-12 19:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91% | 0.7% | 2026-09-12 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-09-12 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-09-12 19:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.72% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.28% | 1.8% | 2026-09-12 19:52 |
| Novig◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.82% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.18% | 2.6% | 2026-09-12 19:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.63% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.54% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.4% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |